July 29, 2007 (the date of publication in Russian)
Alexei Chichkin
ON THE BRINK OF DISINTEGRATION
Recognition of Kosovo may trigger breakup of Bosnia
The federal state of Bosnia and Herzegovina, created by the efforts of the United States and NATO, is politically instable and geographically irrational, and its disintegration is inevitable. This conclusion was made by Cato Institute's expert George Makovich at a recent seminar focused on the problem of ethnic minorities in former Yugoslavia. The analyst believes that the expected declaration of Kosovo independence may only accelerate a split-up of Bosnia.
In accordance to the Dayton Agreements, Bosnia was established as a federation, incorporating Republika Srpska (49% of the territory) and the Moslem-Croat Federation (51%). The administrative power was granted to the Presidium of three persons, representing the Serbian, Moslem (Bosniak) and Croatian communities. The legislative power was yielded to the parliament (Skupscina), in which two thirds of MPs were elected from Republika Srpska and two thirds from the Moslem-Croatian Federation. However, the supreme power was conveyed to the High Representative of the United Nations, the only person authorized to replace top elected officials of Bosnia's territorial communities, with support from a 60,000 UN manpower.
The recent visits of EU delegations and UN's European Economic Commission to Bosnia were almost neglected by international mass media. That was not surprising, as the evanescence of the state, established for the only purpose of deterrence of Serbs, is too obvious for many European politicians. In this context, the proposal of Horst Weller (Germany), a top figure of the EU delegation, to consider potential division of the state between adjacent republics, was most remarkable. In early June, Weller's viewpoint was highlighted in the air of Radio Sarajevo but never surfaced in press.
Bosnia and Herzegovina is weaker than the neighbors also in the economic aspect. Recently, a group of Bosnian MPs addressed the leadership of Croatia, urging to convey a strip of the Adriatic coastline for Bosnia's transport needs. Bosnia and Herzegovina has got only a symbolic access to the Adriatic which can't be used for shipping and transport needs. Bosnia' annual expenses for transit via Croatian ports exceed $70 million, which is very much for the poor state. This transit route had been established historically: the major railroads of Bosnia and Herzegovina connect the mainland with Croatian ports and not with the narrow strip of Bosnia's sovereign coastline.
Bosnia and Herzegovina's producers badly need direct access to markets. The republic’s mineral resources are the richest among the post-Yugoslavian states. Bosnia exports rare metals (including manganese) and alloys, as well as timber. Meanwhile, access to major export routes is available predominantly across Croatia.
The commitment of Croatia's Government for partnership in the EU-promoted plan of establishing the Danube-Drava-Adriatic shipping route, connecting Serbia's province of Vojvodina with the Croatian port of Sibenik, is likely to even more increase Sarajevo's dependence from Zagreb. Though the Danube's southern branches cross Bosnia's territory, the authors of the project have chosen Croatia as the main transit country.
The fragility of the Bosnian Federation is exacerbated with the disintegration of the army forces. Most of the soldiers and officers of the former Croatian Army, detached to the Army of Bosnia and Herzegovina after Dayton, abandoned its ranks in 2006 on the recommendation from the Croatian Popular Assembly. In this way, the Croats expressed their dissent with "discrimination and pressure" from top US and EU representatives, expressed in their efforts to outflank the Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia-Herzegovina (HDZ BiH) which won the sympathies of the Croats at the Skupscina elections in 2005. This party's leaders demanded to carve out an ethnic Croatian republic, on the model of Republika Srpska. In 2005, this demand was even supported by Bosnia and Herzegovina's Constitutional Court.
By today, the border between the Croat- and Moslem-dominated territories of Bosnia and Herzegovina does not exist. The agreement on establishing the Moslem-Croat Federation, signed in 1994 by then Croatia's President Franjo Tudjman and Bosnia's President Alija Izetbegović, suggested that the two communities exercise control of the federation on the parity principle. However, the Croats who regard themselves as winners of the war against Serbia, have found themselves as "second-rate citizens". Paolo Giaconti, expert on Balkan issues, emphasizes that the hostility to the Serbs had served as the single unifying factor of the two communities. As soon as the Serb-Croat confrontation was over, frictions between Croats and Moslems came to the surface, and the idea of separation of Bosnia between Serbia and Croatia has become more and more popular among the local Croatian population.
Discussing this option, one should consider the artificial character of the outside borders of today's Bosnia and Herzegovina, which emerged from a deal between the Austro-Hungarian and the Ottoman empires after the fall of the Republic of Venice in the early XIX century. At that time, Austro-Hungary acquired the whole Adriatic coastline, extending to Montenegro, while the Ottomans retained control over today's Bosnia and Herzegovina. When the Austro-Hungarian army occupied Bosnia a century later (1908), the existing borderline survived, to be later inherited by Tito's Yugoslavia.
The commitment of Bosnian Serbs to integrate into Serbia is very strong. This development is prevented today mainly by the official policy of Belgrade – primarily by President Boris Tadic who fears that ethnic integration might increase the popularity of the anti-Western Serbian Radical Party.
Relevant reservations are shared in the official circles of Zagreb. In 2001, Croatia's President Stipe Mesic denounced the attempts of Bosnian Croats to reach accord with Bosnian Serbs, as well as to elevate their own status in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The principle of "conservation of borders", on which the statehood of Bosnia and Herzegovina was based upon, will be undermined in case of international recognition of Kosovo's independence. Since the legal substantiation of the artificial republic is gone, it will be impossible to raise any juridical arguments in favor of the status quo.
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