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October 17, 2007 (the date of publication in Russian)

Alexander Sobko

A RENEWAL OF OTTOMAN TRADITIONS

Turkey responds to recognition of genocide of Armenians with intervention into Iraq

On October 9, Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced a comprehensive preparation for a massive trans-border military operation against the Kurdish insurgency in Northern Iraq. One of the envisaged options of military actions suggests an intervention into Iraq for a distance of 5-10 km and establishing complete control over the border. News agencies report about redeployment of military force in the direction of Iraq, and gunfire in areas where Kurds are reported to cross the borderline.

On Monday, October 15, the Government of Turkey conveyed a request for approval of the trans-border operation to the Parliament. The cause, or rather the pretext for the operation – which, frankly speaking, does not correspond with international law – was the recent activation of the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK), to which the military ascribe the death of fifteen Turkish servicemen in a local fight in the south-east of Turkey on October 7.

Iraq's government has already officially expressed its concern over Ankara's plans, and dispatched a working group for dealing with the problem to Turkey. It is noteworthy that in late September, Turkey and Iraq have already signed a bilateral agreement, concerning joint measures against Kurdish insurgents. However, this document did not allow the Turkish military to cross the border while pursuing Kurdish fighters. Obviously, this fact was interpreted by Ankara as reluctance to suppress the Kurdish paramilitary units. Meanwhile, Turkey suspects Kurdish political activists of an intention to use the current chaos in Iraq for fulfilling their old dream of establishing an independent Kurdish statehood.

After Washington openly admitted the possibility of Iraq's transformation into a federation, the opportunities for emergence of an independent Kurdish state have significantly increased. It became obvious that the US military are not going to join Turkey in oppressive measures against the domestic Kurdish insurgents.

During the last two years, Washington and Ankara repeatedly discussed the possibility of a military crackdown upon the Kurdish insurgency. While Turkey expected assistance from the United States, reminding of its role of the major strategic partner of Washington in the region, Bush's administration displayed reluctance for joint military actions. Already in the process of planning the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime, the United States made a stake on the Kurdish population of Northern Iraq, hoping to instrumentalize the hate of the Kurds towards Saddam for establishing convenient control of top US corporations over Iraqi oil, concentrated mostly in the area of the Kurdish-dominated Kirkuk. These considerations prevented Washington from military cooperation with Ankara, despite Turkey's status of a key partner.

Turkey's patience was exhausted with a development that was ostensibly unrelated to the Kurdish issue. On October 10, the US House's Committee on International Affairs adopted a resolution recognizing Turkey's 1915 massacre of the Armenian minority as genocide. This decision had been pursued by the Armenian diaspora in the United States for years. The Armenian lobby, enjoying support from influential circles of the US Democratic Party, used a convenient instance for pushing the draft. The expected tensions across the Middle East, resulting from this political action, would definitely undermine the Republicans in the midst of the Presidential campaign. Not surprisingly, State Secretary Condoleezza Rice, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and President George W. Bush personally urged the House MPs; all of them urged that the draft be suspended.

Though the fact of Armenian genocide was recognized only by one of the House's committees (the vote in the Congress being scheduled for mid-November), Turkey immediately reacted to this transitional decision. Admiral Metin Atac, Commander of the Turkish Navy, and State Minister Kursad Tuzmen cancelled their visits to Washington. The regular meeting of the Turkish-American Business Council, scheduled for late October, was cancelled as well. The Government of Turkey characterized the House Committee's decision as "a move contradicting to the relations of friendship and cooperation between Turkey and the United States", while mass media reported that Turkey is going to recall its Ambassador from Washington (this version later being refuted by Erdogan).

Turkey's nervous reaction to the international recognition of Armenian genocide (the subject already raised by the World Armenian Council in its address to UN's International Tribunal in The Hague) may be explained with expectations that similar claims might be raised also by the Greeks.

Actually, the extermination of Pontic (Asianic) Greeks in Turkey in the period of 1916-1923 is comparable with the crackdown upon Armenians. In 1994, the Parliament of Greece established the date of May 19 as the day of commemoration of the Pontic Greeks. By today, only Greece, Cyprus, Armenia, and the state of New York have officially recognized the extermination of the Pontic Greeks as genocide. International recognition of the genocide of Greeks could substantiate at least a request for compensation for the relatives of the victims. Certainly, the return of the territories, populated in the early of XX century by Pontic Greeks, is hardly possible. However, in the new context, the status of Northern Cyprus, occupied by Turkish military forces, could be viewed from a new standpoint.

The recognition of genocide of Pontic Greeks was once regarded as a condition of Turkey's entry in the European Union. At one of the stages of relevant negotiations, this condition was omitted. Still, on September 27, 2006, the issue was raised anew in the European Parliament.

Turkey's military preparations at the border of Iraq, emerging as a response to a legislative action of one of the US House's committees, do not improve Ankara's international prestige, and create an impression that the Turkish leadership is going to transform the country into a monoethnic state.

In its turn, the outcome of the November vote on the Armenian genocide in the US Congress is likely to seriously affect the geopolitical situation in Asia Minor and Transcaucasia. Recognition of the genocide would strengthen Armenia's stance over the disputed territory of Karabakh (Artsakh). In the Soviet period, this Armenian-dominated territory was included into the Soviet Socialist Republic of Azerbaijan as an autonomous region; during the war, emerging in late 1980s, Karabakh was overtaken by Armenian troops and later established as an independent (presently unrecognized) state. The problem of Karabakh has repeatedly served as an obstacle for Azerbaijan in its relations with Turkey, as Azerbaijan's efforts to prevent legitimization of Karabakh's sovereignty contradicted to Turkey's stand for the formal independence of the Republic of Northern Cyprus.

In case the Congress supports the view of its Committee for International Affairs, Azerbaijan's dissatisfaction with US policy would be unfavorable for Washington. In this situation, Azerbaijan is likely to improve its relations with both Ankara and Tehran. The implications of US Republican political game in Iraq and the US Democratic political gestures towards Armenia may result in a more massive chain reaction of geopolitical shifts than expected by any of the sides, pursuing situational goals of their own.

How should Russia behave in this situation? A number of strategies, each of them suggesting certain advantages and costs, are being discussed in Russian diplomatic circles. In any case, it is obvious that for a country, which intends to regain its status of a superpower, respect towards historical justice should prevail over foreign trade conjuncture.


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