02.10.2008

September 22, 2008 (the date of publication in Russian)

Ilya Kvetny

A CONTROLLABLE DOWNGRADE

The nomination of Tzipi Livni to the post of the Prime Minister of Israel goes in line with the transfer of the country into the "third league" of the global politics

"ONE OF THE MIDDLE-EASTERN COUNTRIES"

The unwillingness of a political figure to appear on the demonstration can't be considered an epochal event. Nevertheless the editorial boards of some leading US newspapers dedicated their headline articles to such a common occasion. Hillary Clinton refused to come to the meeting arranged in front of UN headquarters in New York. According to the opinions expressed in the newspapers, this political cowardice is at least an astonishing phenomenon.

The main aim of American Jewish society gathering people in front of the headquarters of the most influential international organization was to demonstrate its dissent with the UN decision to provide a tribune to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The speech of the Iranian leader, declaring that the United States and Israel are going to be "razed to the ground", provoked such a reaction.

Senator Hillary Clinton stays a political symbol even after losing in Democratic primaries. Organizers' need for such a symbol on the meeting in favor of peace seemed particularly relevant. They supposed that this political action would be especially effective, if Hillary stands shoulder to shoulder with the Republican vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin for the protection of Israel. In fact, the support of Israel remains one of those few questions, about which both parties had full solidarity.

But Mrs. Clinton counselors informed that she won't come to the protest. They explained that the presence of her rival may "incongruously fetch off" her political failure. Amazed organizers decided to change the format immediately and applied to the headquarters of Joseph Biden – the vice-presidential nominee. But it turned out that this day was long ago arranged as a pre-election meeting, and could not be delayed.

"That's a shame. This has never happened before", – the newspapers say. And that's true. However, the decision of spending a trillion dollars to support major private financial institutes has also never been made by the White House before. Neither has the only presidential nominee, supported by acting President, disapproved the strategy of leading corporations. Nor has the combination of the hardest financial crisis and the fail of military campaign in two Islamic counties taken place before.

Neither of political parties knows how the crisis will end. But both parties have to say something to their voters. It's notable, that there are more Muslims, than Jews among them. That's why the most stable priorities of American foreign policy fall to play the second fiddle.

A week before the new phase of the financial collapse, the United States said no to Israel, when it asked for the delivery of special bombs for the destruction of deep underground objects and planes for in-flight refueling. Both this conformed deals were substituted by Washington with the decision of deploying the anti-aircraft warfare. And more, the name of the country, where the military equipment would be situated, wasn't mentioned. A devoted ally of America was for some reason called "one of the Middle-Eastern countries".

The name of a powerful American general, who said that another military conflict between Israel and Iran was inexpedient, was also "hushed up" in the interview for The Independent.

Being "one of the countries" is remarkably new for Israel. But this offence isn't brought out, even though in another case editorials of Israeli newspapers would burst out with anger and clamor. The same thing happens with the political establishment – it has to eat humble pie, when the Premier candidature is obtruded from the outside.

A few days before the inner-party election in Kadima, where two possible candidates to the chief post were determined, The Times described one of them very sympathetically. Guess who was this? Foreign Affairs Minister, Tzipi Livni. This woman, with the reputation of Condoleezza Rice's protégé, was portrayed by as a solid protector of Israeli interests. Meanwhile her competitor's slogans seemed far more acceptable to the most of Israelis. Men of arms were especially fascinated by the Transport Minister (in the past – Defense Minister) Shaul Mofaz. But he committed a prohibited thing – he made a suggestion of possible hostilities against Iran.

Shaul Mofaz dropped only 431 votes to Tzipi Livni. Thereto, the side of the electoral committee government was rather preconceived. It became absolutely clear after they've made a decision to prolong the voting to half an hour more. Thus initialization of dissidence both of the party and the parliamentarian fraction came easy to Mofaz the very next day. But he preferred a silent desertion from the political scene, even though it's a well known fact: the decision like that occludes perspectives of coming back to politics for a long time.

 

A GLASS OF VODKA FOR "RUSSIANS"

After heading the party, Tzipi Livni gets a rare opportunity (though casuistic from legal point of view) to form the government without parliamentary elections. This possibility was given to her by active Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who proclaimed that he will retire after the election of the party leader on July 30.

Tzipi Livni first announced her claims to the highest governmental post as far back as Ariel Sharon was the Prime Minister. Four years ago, after getting from his hands the post of the Minister of Immigrants Absorption, she notified openly that she deserved a more important part than heading this "low-grade ministry". That kind of description given to once powerful and financially wealthy department (its golden age was in the end 1980s – in the period of mass immigration from the USSR) put many "new Israelis" of the last wave of immigrants on guard. Their apprehensions turned out to be reasonable: never before had state programs of immigrants' adaptation been curtailed that brusquely.

Thereat, in 2004, Mrs. Livni didn't hide her preconceived attitude to "Russians". Addressing their claims for improvement of their social status and more benefits, she made a statement, that Russian expatriates should rather be as grateful to the leading Likud bloc, as Ethiopian Jews are (they had supported the party without a dissentient voice, since Yitzhak Shamir cleared the way to Israel for them).

Tzipi's adherence to right-wing party seemed to be genetical: her father, Eitan Livni, in the end of 1940s was a member of a radical part in a minor right-wing Herut party, which later became the basis of Likud. This detail doesn't seem to disturb London at all nowadays, though in times of struggle for the independence of Israel Zionists spoiled a lot of British blood, both in direct and figurative senses., which later became the basis of Likud. This detail doesn't seem to disturb London at all nowadays, though in times of struggle for the independence of Israel Zionists spoiled a lot of British blood, both in direct and figurative senses., which later became the basis of Likud. This detail doesn't seem to disturb London at all nowadays, though in times of struggle for the independence of Israel Zionists spoiled a lot of British blood, both in direct and figurative senses., which later became the basis of Likud. This detail doesn't seem to disturb London at all nowadays, though in times of struggle for the independence of Israel Zionists spoiled a lot of British blood, both in direct and figurative senses. , which later became the basis of Likud. This detail doesn't seem to disturb London at all nowadays, though in times of struggle for the independence of Israel Zionists spoiled a lot of British blood, both in direct and figurative senses.

However, on November 2005 Tzipi Livni left Likud without hesitation. Together with Sharon and Ehud Olmert she actualized the split of the party and then formed the centrist Kadima party. Her devotion to Sharon was paid-up with a third place in the election list of the new party and unprecedented simultaneous holding of two offices – of Minister of Justice and Minister of Foreign affairs at once in the situation of some political disorder, when even Sharon's wartime merits weren't taken into account by his opponents from the right, who blamed him for the betrayal (he decided to legalize Palestinian state and to liquidate many Jewish settlements in Palestinian lands).

While Israeli right, especially their Russian-speaking part, were shocked by the participation of Mrs. Livni in the celebration of the acceptance of the "separating" resolution, where she shook her legs to the rock music, Anglo-American press complimented her more and more. Observers highly evaluated political and physical flexibility of this ambitious madam, who was ready to sacrifice everything (even her family principles) for the sake of a good career.

Though Ehud Olmert surrendered to Condoleezza Rice and stopped the military offensive in Lebanon, almost every member of his government was subject to most derogative attacks both from the right and from the left. Sometimes it was impossible to understand, what did mass-media or prosecutor office want, untwisting one poky financial or private scandal after another. The sedition (involving a strong wave of strikes) was definitely conducted by powerful outer forces. The coordination of these attacks on Olmert was often referred to Binyamin Netanyahu, the leader of the remainder of Likud. But last year Netanyahu was also struck by a corruption scandal. Amazingly, only one politician came through all the series of scandalous disclosures unscathed. It was Tzipi Livni.

Though ex-premier Netanyahu always criticized Olmert for compromising to Arabians, right-wing Israelis became disappointed in him more and more. Acrimonious visitors of Russian-language website Mneniya had no illusions about his abilities of a leader: "Bibi is yapping from behind the fence. One yap – and he puts his tail between the legs, thinking if his yap was too loud. He is a real coward, afraid even to get out of the game. He knows that if he was elected Prime Minister, he couldn't do even a piece of required things, which were done by Olmert. Though Olmert's decision of striking "Hezbollah" was stupid and crude, he did strike. Bibi doesn't even dare to dream about that"…

But the supporters of "yapping Bibi" were definitely positive to Russia (for example, approving Moscow's military operations in Chechnya), whilst Tzipi Linvi paid her attention to "Russian" audience only shortly before her promotion to the highest party post. David Schechter, the editor-in-chief of the Menora newspaper, felt really insulted, when Livni's staff put a bottle of vodka on a separate table for Russian-speaking journalists at the breakfast-party dedicated to party election. He discerned a purposeful cultural humiliation in that.

 

EVERYTHING WILL BE PREDICTABLE

Now Netanyahu insists on pre-term elections, but the ruling circles of establishment don't listen to him. Cheated "Russians", who actively participated in campaign against Olmert, are now calling to boycott the elections if they take place. Meanwhile, Tzipi Livni intends to escape the necessity of the elections. And she'll cope with that if she is able to create a governmental coalition in a month's time after coming to arrangements with majority of parties. She's already found a common language with party structures that unite religious Jews – left-wing Meretz and right-wing Shas.

In the largest left-wing Avoda party the attitude to Livni is ambiguous. The observer Maya Bengal notices that the inner-party success of Livni will harshly abridge the participation of Avoda in future government. However, in fact, the practicability of Olmert replacement was first announced by the representative of Avoda and another ex-premier Ehud Barak, who is Defense Minister now. Better informed commentators today do not exclude the possibility of the unification of Avoda and the left wing of Kadima into one party. The right political forces are expected to be represented only by the Shas party in Livni's government. Shas frequently plays the role of "makeweight" and a balance element in Israeli Knesset, just as LDPR in Russian Duma.

The participation of Shas in Livni's government will effectively block the most unacceptable decision for the right – for instance, the partition of Jerusalem that is supported in principle by Avoda.

Political flexibility plus personal charisma – that's what the most pragmatic part of US establishment needs from new Israeli government. It's a well-known fact, that new Israeli Premier won't mind the creation of a new Palestinian state. The state, which will be under the political leadership and control of Fatah party – the heir of the Palestine Liberation Organization. Neither bilateral agreements with their opponents from Hamas (which Ehud Olmert tried to reach – and not without success), nor special relationships with Syria are foreseen.

The decision of American establishment not to start a war with Iran before the Presidential election does not contradict to the policy of controlling all the pro-Iranian parties in the region. Israel, headed by Tzipi Livni, will mostly pay attention to peaceful relationships with Sunni states and political movements in the Middle East. It will become a weak state, but easily predictable in its politics. And of course, in it's relationships with Russia. They will be limited by the establishment of two-way visa-free access (actually initiated by Olmert). As for other ex-Premier's projects, and in particular the building of the extension of Russian gas pipeline from Turkey to Israel, – they will vanish from the political agenda, will be just thrown out, together with their lobbyist Binyamin Ben-Eliezer.

 

A NEW JOB FOR BALTAZAR GARZON

Romantic project of "political matriarchy" with Hillary Clinton in USA, Segolene Royal in Paris, Benazir Bhutto in Islamabad, Tzipi Livni in Jerusalem and Yulia Timoshenko in Kiev couldn't be realized in its entirety. Charismatic women are accepted to administration in countries of "the second class" – Ukraine and Israel. By the twist of fate Yulia Timoshenko is a figure, comparable with Livni by many political and personal criterions. But she counted upon the success of Netanyahu and even had a common image-maker with him. And nowadays US State Department isn't interested in creation of uncontrollable "axes" even in minor allied countries; especially if these axes have any points of interceptions in Moscow.

Though, "minor countries" is still an exaggerated status. Nowadays, Washington is much more concerned about relationships with Cairo, than sentimentalities with Jerusalem. The same attitude applies equally to, correspondingly, Warsaw and Kiev. American pragmatists attach greater significance to a) territorially and politically self-sufficient allies and b) to those countries, which don't gather in the perception-room and ask for "some porridge". "Visitors" like these will be immediately transferred to "the third-class" countries in the geopolitical division of labour and all the powers over them will be given to the "second class". That's why Ukraine will remain the outlet for Poland, and Israel will remain the emporium of Egyptian energy resources.

And those oligarchs, who were ambitious enough to count on political protection of their investments, should better prepare themselves to the destiny of Khodorkovsky. The global financial situation is too unpromising, so state structures won't be able to restrain the temptation of "milking" magnates. The hysteria about the would-be movement of the British embassy in Israel to the office of Lev Leviev's (Levayev's) Africa-Israel Corporation, which was risen by London press, is as natural as the disclosure of contacts between Netanyahu and "the richest Jew of the whole world" Sheldon Adelson. Inexhaustible prosecutors from Switzerland and Spain, whose duty zeal has grown out of left beliefs, will find much work to do not only in Marbella, but also in Israeli Savion and Ukrainian Koncha-Zaspa. This new mission will open still unknown financial contacts of Israeli major bosses not only in USA, but in Russia.

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