RUS ENG
 

MAIN PAGE
AFFAIRS OF STATE
WORLD POLITICS
EX-USSR
ECONOMY
DEFENSE
SOCIETY
CULTURE
CREED
LOOKING AHEAD

March 13, 2007 (the date of publication in Russian)

Alexander Sobko

A MUTINY IN "ATATÜRK'S GUARD"?

Losing US support, the Turkish military elite may turn towards Russia

According to a report in The Turkish Daily News, a major Turkish English-language paper, the official website of the Turkish Army's General Staff recently published the full text of Vladimir Putin's speech in Munich. (It is noteworthy that this report appears to be one of the five most frequently read materials of the current month). The Russia-friendly comments, made for the paper by a senior retired officer, imply that the military circles of Turkey as are seriously considering a possible change of geopolitical priorities.

To assess the importance of relevant statements, one should take into account that in Turkey, higher military ranks carry a special authority in the national establishment. In accordance with the behests of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, who sought Turkey's integration into the community of European states, the Army was constitutionally destined as a guarantor of a laicist (secular) system of state. The Turkish military, for which the devotion to Atatürk has served as the central element of their corporate political cult, used this privilege to unseat a number of legitimately established governments, viewed by them as "incapable" or "ideologically inconsistent".

For the last time, this happened in 1997, when the army leadership, with full support from the USA, coerced Necmeddin Erbakan, a veteran of Turkish political Islam who officially declared Turkey's possible withdrawal from NATO and buildup of a new military pact of Turkey, Iran and Pakistan, to resign from the Prime Minister's post.

By today, however, the situation has essentially changed. The politically self-sufficient Turkish military elite has become an odd link in Washington's geopolitical designs. In his turn, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, chair of the Islamist AK Partisi ("Justice and Development Party") and Erbakan's political heir, is uninterested in a reputation of an antiglobalist. The Prime Minister is rather preoccupied with retaining power than with efforts to change the balance in favor of Islamic states. To prevent the recurrence of the decade-ago events, he desperately needs Turkey's entry in the EU, where military coups are not accepted.

Erdoğan's longing for EU membership is greeted by Washington and London, where Turkey is viewed as a convenient tool to make the EU mechanism amorphous and poorly manageable. There are certain grounds to suspect that the United States has proposed a specific deal to Erdoğan, suggesting guarantees of his staying in power in exchange for his loyalty to US policy in the Middle East – to a policy likely to turn of lot of problems for Turkey in the nearest time.

Today, there are few doubts that the US strategy in Iraq is aimed at the country' partition, with emergence of an independent Kurdistan. Declaration of Iraqi Kurdistan's independence is likely to fuel up a national liberation movement also in the Kurd-populated provinces of Turkey. It is noteworthy that some regions of Turkey with a dense Kurdish population are crossed with (or adjacent to) the functioning Baku – Tbilisi – Ceyhan oil pipeline, as well as the Baku – Tbilisi – Erzurum gas pipeline, to be launched on March 25 (both projects designed to circumvent Russia). Eventually, an independent Kurdistan may raise the issue of unification with other Kurd-dominated territories of the Middle East, including those of Iran (which is of special importance for the US).

However, the future partition on Iraq is not openly discussed. Today's agenda suggests a referendum on the status of Kirkuk, which the United States is going to conduct by the end of this year. The solution of the fate of this region, where 60% of Iraqi oil is extracted, suggests that Kirkuk is likely to be merged into Iraqi Kurdistan. Not surprisingly, Turkey regularly objects of launching such a kind of referendum. Still, the fact that precisely the Kurds are acquiring the status of the US' privileged ally, is becoming a major challenge for Ankara – which, in the view of Washington, is supposed to abandon the eastern direction of its policy and focus exceptionally on integration into Europe.

As RPMonitor.ru already mentioned, in early January, after the talks of Turkey's entry in the EU were stalled, EC chairman Jose Manuel Barroso urged for "continuation of the dialogue with Turkey". Could Turkey perceive this as a sign of EC's weakness? Could the EC realize this, and make its own conclusions? In any case, the EU hasn't lately demonstrated any consent for concessions on disputable issues. On the contrary, efforts around possible reunification of Cyprus were intensified; last week, the chairman of the Turkish Workers' Party was indicted and fined by a Swiss court for negation of the 1915 Turkish genocide of Armenians.

Naturally, Prime-Minister Erdoğan also displays anxiety over the current situation. Still, despite his militant rhetoric, Erdoğan is hardly able to protect national interests to the extent inherent in the Turkish military circles, because of his focus upon EU integration – which, in its turn, is very problematic without support from the United States.

The Prime Minister's commitment for EU integration is likely to steer him into a compromise on the issue of Cyprus' reunification. The same is too about the Armenian problem. It is noteworthy the on March 29, Erdoğan is going to visit the opening ceremony of Surb-Haç, an Armenian Church on Ahtamar Isle.

Already in December 2006, when the talks over EU membership were stalled, Turkey agreed to open one sea terminal and one airport for the Republic of Cyprus.

It is significant that the Turkey didn't officially respond to the demolition of the wall, dividing the two parts of island, which was approved by the government of Republic Cyprus. Meanwhile, the possible withdrawal from Northern Cyprus would inevitably cause a row in Turkish military circles.

Contradictions between the military and the Prime Minister in foreign policy issues are superposed with Erdoğan's ambiguous attitude to the Atatürk's behests, which have become cultic in the Turkish higher military ranks. Today, the Islamist Prime-Minister is balanced by a secular-inclined President Ahmed Necdet Sezer, reputed as the Army's protégé. However, new Presidential elections are expected to change the picture. In Turkey, the President is elected by the Parliament. Observers believe that Erdoğan himself will become Turkey's President, while the post of Prime Minister will be granted his closest political ally, current Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül.

It is natural that the military elite requires new footholds abroad, on the background of domestic contradictions and partial loss of US support, which once used to provide a political cover for the Army's political demarches. Regarding a steady increase of an anti-American and – most significantly – an anti-European sentiment in the Turkish population, as well as the progress of Russia's geopolitical influence, the army leadership's intention to establish a closer partnership with Moscow doesn't seem surprising. It is true that improvement of relations with Russia is everyway favorable for Turkey. Firstly, the second stage of the "Blue Stream" gas pipeline project, recently proposed by Moscow, makes Turkey the greatest transit supplier for the whole South-Eastern Europe. Secondly, the historical background of Atatürk's closest partnership with the USSR in 1920s provides an essential ideological base for a new promising relationship.

Does that mean that the Turkish Army is likely to undertake the next political offensive not under the motto of NATO loyalty and European choice but under the banners of anti-Americanism and ideals of a multipolar world order? In the reality of today, where old allies easily proceed from partnership to confrontation on a new curve of geopolitical contradictions, even more unexpected developments are possible.


Number of shows: 2860
(no votes)
 © GLOBOSCOPE.RU 2006 - 2024 Rambler's Top100