May 10, 2007 (the date of publication in Russian)
Alexander Rudakov, Alexander Sobko
ANARCHY INSTEAD OF STABILITY
Where is "Superman" Sarkozy steering France?
Nicolas Sarkozy's May 6 victory in the French presidential race was not surprising. All the French sociologists promised him success, and the 3% advantage over Ségolène Royal in the second round of elections seemed even smaller than expected. The real sensation followed days later.
As soon as the results were made public, a massive unrest emerged in various regions of the country. Its scale may be judged upon statistics. Within three days after the vote, protesters had burnt down over 300 autos; during only one night in Paris, 78 policemen were injured. The following student strikes completed the pattern of the "Paris riots" of 2005, when Mr. Sarkozy, then-Minister of Interior, acquired his ambiguous reputation of a "superman" and "tamer of hooligans" from Arabic outskirts. This pattern is going to be reproduced again and again.
In his new capacity of President, Sarkozy enjoys a new opportunity for self-affirmation, as the number of French, supposed to be dragged to police precincts, has only increased. Though Sarkozy's fans were longing for stability and order, their idol's success turned a new eruption of anarchy.
Sarkozy's victory has revitalized a number of strong but earlier latent tensions in the French society. Previously, contradictions between those who were ready to sacrifice liberty for the sake of order and the categorical opponents of a "police state" were restricted to certain limits, largely due to a tolerant political behavior of leaving President Jacques Chirac. Today, all youth protesting groups, including Arabs, pacifists, and leftist radicals, have acquired an ideal enemy image, personified by Sarkozy.
An Americanophile and a Bush-admirer; a police punisseur, advocating new empowerment of law enforcement authorities – those are exactly the features of a perfect tyrant whom the energy of the youth exasperation is bound to descend upon.
The conflict has also split the political elite of France. Sarkozy is the first president of the Fifth Republic who is openly committed to exchange his country's political independence for a status of a privileged vassal of the United States – below the UK but above Germany.
Russian TV comments on Sarkozy's foreign policy approach was focused on anti-Russian statements of the newly-elected president, who is really influenced with the views of Andre Glucksmann, a pathological Russophobe who launched a massive campaign of support for Chechen separatist warlords Aslan Maskhadov and Shamil Basayev back in 2000.
The Russian audience is less acquainted with Sarkozy's equally hostile anti-German rhetoric. Addressing Germany, Mr. Sarkozy demands that the German nation continue to repent over the war crimes of World War II. Interpreting Sarkozy's success as a result of a purposeful effort of influential forces inside and outside France, it looks highly probable that the major intention implied was to weaken and isolate Germany. With Sarkozy's success, Germany finds itself under pressure both from the east (Kaczynski's Poland, and Czechia under Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek, both dreaming of deployment of US ABM facilities on their territories) and the west (Sarkozy's France).
Still, the new President's anti-Russian and anti-German stance is unlikely to be shared by a large faction of French bureaucracy and diplomatic community, brought up on ideas of Gaullism. As a matter of fact, Sarkozy has betrayed the heritage of General Charles de Gaulle, who declared a pan-European choice of France and ousted NATO's headquarters from Paris. This betrayal is unlikely to be easily pardoned.
Tensions in the French establishment were especially visible between the two rounds of elections. France, as well as the whole of Europe, with its unwritten but generally accepted tradition of fair and ethic-based election practice, was shocked with the frequency of insults and accusations mounted by major opponents upon one another. This clutter could be compared only with the last year's parliamentary race in Italy, where insulting arguments were amplified with criminal charges against then-Premier Sylvio Berlusconi, lifted only weeks ago.
Sarkozy obviously intends to recoup the lack of support from the establishment by popularity among the common French. In exchange for surrender of France's geopolitical advantages, Sarkozy has received a carte blanche from US patrons for use of ultra-nationalist rhetoric (Jean-Marie Le Pen could sue him for plagiary).
This is already the third example of "tolerance to ultra-nationalism" in Europe after the campaigns of the Kaczynski brothers and Hungary's ex-Premier Victor Orban (beside Baltic ethnocracies). In each of those cases, Washington's protégé was granted an excuse from European standards of political correctness. To some extent, Sarkozy echoes Vladimir Zhirinovsky, a veteran of Russian political battles.
Sarkozy's ability to consolidate a public majority during the Presidential race does not guarantee absolute power. His opponents are well organized, enraged and aggressive. Clashes between Arab youths and the police are now going to acquire a more emphatic ideological background. Sarkozy has got a reputation of an Islamophobe; this image is likely to be confirmed with his further moves on the international scene. Sacrozy is expected to develop a harsher approach towards Syria and Lebanon, as well as on Iran's nuclear program.
We have sufficient grounds to expect Sarkozy to become one of the first European politicians to approve US strikes on Iran in case Washington decides to wage a new war in the Gulf. In the issue of Palestine, Sarkozy is entirely on the Israeli side. On the background of dissent from the Arabic population of France, this factor is likely to result in upsurge of ethnic contradictions. No wonder if the Palestino-Israeli conflict expands to the streets of French cities.
In the new situation, Arab teenagers are likely to win more sympathy in the ranks of French leftist parties which strain after a revenge in the parliamentary elections in June. One could just wonder about the strategic prospects of this alliance. Still, it is obvious that the awesome scenario, described in Yelena Chudinova's novel "The Mosque of Notre Dame", is more likely to come true under the rule of Sarkozy. Massive disappointment with the new leadership may swing back the political pendulum with such a force that the whole French political system may fall apart on the pattern of a "critical error".
Sarkozy's ascent marks the end of the conjuncture of European policy, favorable for Russia. In 2005, Gerhard Schröder, Jacques Chirac and Silvio Berlusconi comprised a sort of Russia's "team of support" on the global scene; today, Russia will have to deal with leaders of a far different profile. The Russian-French-German axis is disrupted; personal friendship of leaders is precluded. France's indifferent neutrality in the "Russian issue" is the best option Moscow can expect today.
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