September 19, 2007 (the date of publication in Russian)

Alexander Rudakov

"THE CINDER REVOLUTION" HAS FAILED

Russian-Greek cooperation will steadily continue

Greece's Prime Minister Kostas (Konstantinos Alexandrou) Karamanlis received a good present for his birthday, celebrated on September 14. The New Democracy Party, chaired by the Premier, repeatedly won the parliamentary elections, garnering 41.8% and surpassing its major rival – the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK), headed by Georgios Papandreou (38.1%). Besides, three other parties achieved seats in the parliament: the Communist Party of Greece (8.1%), the Leftist Radical Union (5.0%), and the Popular Orthodox Appeal Party (3.8%).

The two major political rivals, Karamanlis and Papandreou, have inherited the controversy of several decades. The present leader of New Democracy Party is a nephew of the party's founder Konstantinos G. Karamanlis, who was several times elected Premier and eventually became the President of Greece.

Meanwhile, Georgios Andrea Papandreou, the head of PASOK and the chairman of the Socialist International, represents the most famous political dynasty of the country. His father Andreas and his grandfather Georgios were also several times elected to the post of Prime Minister.

However, Greek policy should not be viewed as a brawl of family clans. The political brands of Karamanlis and Papandreou personify different strategies of the country's development.

Establishing his New Democracy Party, Konstantinos Karamanlis Sr. followed the pattern of de Gaullist Party of France. On the contrary to US Republicans and British Tories, Karamanlis has always insisted on the strict control of the state over corporate business, and on fair distribution of the national income. Like de Gaulle, Karamanlis emphasized the necessity to observe his nation's cultural identity, as well as to protect the national language and cultural tradition. At the same time, Greece became the tenth member of the European Union. The idea of integration into the European community was motivated with Karamanlis' efforts to establish a counterbalance to the American influence in his country.

Meanwhile, PASOK was developing as a typical revisionist Socialist party, similarly to the kindred political forces of France and Spain. Gaining power in 1981, Mr. Papandreou, like François Mitterand and Felipe González, immediately forgot his promises to break up with NATO and to nationalize the major branches of Greek economy. After the collapse of the bipolar political system, PASOK ruled Greece between 1993 and 2004 under the motto of the transformation of Hellas into a "normal European country".

However, the New Democracy Party returned to power in 2004, thus strengthening the positions of conservative forces in the country. Unlike PASOK and other leftist parties insisting that the church be separated from the state and to deprive the Orthodoxy of the status of the national religion, the New Democracy Party firmly protects the status quo.

The anti-clerical campaign in Greece has got a strong geopolitical undertone. Christodoulos, the Archbishop of Athens and All Greece, Prelate of the Greek Orthodox Church, was the only top figure in the EU's religious community who harshly condemned the NATO policy in Kosovo and expressed solidarity with the people of Serbia. After that, the Greek Orthodox Church became an object of rabid ostracism from both outside and inside the country. Under powerful pressure from outside, the New Democracy Party, which incorporates a conservative traditionalistic and a moderate liberal wing, was forced to concede to adopt a number of laws, restricting the traditional rights of the church. In this context, the entry of Georgios Karadzaferis's Popular Orthodox Appeal Party, expressing the interests of religious patriotic circles, into the parliament, is likely to assist in re-establishing the disturbed balance.

The ascent of Kostas Karamanlis to the Premier's position in 2004 was reflected in the foreign policy of Greece as well. The country even more boldly expressed its disaccord with the policy of Western powers in Kosovo, with a special emphasis on trans-Balkan integration. At the same time, Greece significantly improved its relations with Russia. In December 2006, fostering the talks which had lasted for fourteen years, the Greek Government approved the decision on construction of Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline, to be formalized by the trilateral agreement of Russia, Bulgaria and Greece of March 2007. In his interview to Russian mass media on this subject, Kostas Karamanlis said: "Our purpose is to establish an environmentally secure route, collateral to the Bosporus and the Dardanelles, for delivery of Russian oil from the Black Sea to the Adriatic. At the same time, the implementation of the project introduces a significant contribution to unclogging the Bosporus and the Dardanelles, providing more efficient delivery of Russian oil to international markets. Therefore, we insist that the construction of the Burgas-Alexandroupolis pipeline corresponds with the interests of not only Russia, Bulgaria and Greece but also with the benefits of the whole region and the international markets".

The trilateral agreement aroused outspoken irritation from the United States. Already in 2006, Greek media discussed the possibility of the country's "punishment" by Washington. These surmises were confirmed with the unrest in Hungary, which were similarly associated by analysts with Budapest's commitment for close partnership in gas transit.

In summer 2007, Greece was shaken with an unprecedented natural disaster, terminating 60 human lives and inflicting damage of 4bln Euro. Huge forest fires, starting in late July – practically at the same time with the decision of Kostas Karamanlis to introduce snap elections – soon found out to be "artificial", several persons being caught literally red-handed. The impact of the fires on the Greek society was supposed to affect the outcome of the elections and to dump the New Democratic Party's government. However, this did not happen. The "cinder revolution", anticipated by a number of analysts, was a failure. The New Democracy Party managed to maintain a majority, allowing it to form a single-party government. This outcome provides guarantees of an unchanged political course of Greece, including the perspective of further improvement of relations between Athens and Moscow.

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