January 31, 2008 (the date of publication in Russian)
Alexander Eliseev
A GEOPOLITICAL SHOW-OFF
The Mediterranean fantasy and the Baltic perspective
THE FIFTH WHEEL OF THE EUROPEAN CART
The project of the Association of Mediterranean States, advertised by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, may result in a serious shift in the geopolitical format of vast expanses of Europe, Asia and Africa. We are probably facing a very sophisticated operation of Euro-Atlanticists, targeting several subjects of global policy.
First of all, the UMS project is targeting the European Union. In fact, its purpose is to create a kind of a southern counterbalance to the unified Europe. Moreover, this counterbalance is portrayed as an entity almost equal to the EU. "We'll do the same for the Mediterranean as what was once done for the European Union", said Sarkozy quite explicitly. "The same" means, in particular, a similarly developed mythology supposed to convince a maximum broader number of nations of the grandeur of design. Certainly, that suggests a lot of demonstration and window-dressing. It is obvious that the Mediterranean Union is unlikely to ever elevate to the level of the EU. Still, it may bring forth some serious difficulties for the unified Europe, though not splitting it – which, by today, is hardly possible.
Sarkozy's geopolitical tragicomedy reminds of the judgments of prominent European traditionalist Julius Evola who once ruthlessly ridiculed the so-called "Mediterranean type of civilization": "First of all, a typical "Mediterranean" feature of character is expressed in disposition to demonstrative behavior and fine gestures. The Mediterranean type requires theatrics not necessarily for satisfaction of low-pitched vanity and exhibitionism, but just because inspiration and passion – even in most decent, glorious and sincere deeds – can be generated only in the presence of the audience".
The "Mediterranean style" was contradistinguished by Evola to the Roman style, with its rigor, alertness, sobriety, disregard of any kind of show-off, and abundance with dignity. This difference creates a paradox: in fact, Sarkozy, consciously or subconsciously, wishes to reproduce the geopolitical entity of Rome, for which the Mediterranean was an internal sea. Meanwhile, his would-be imperial ambitions have little in common with Roman imperialism. He actually intends to establish a kind of a "multicultural" community without any spiritual or political kernel – like one into which Rome eventually degenerated. For Rome, however, that was the end, while for Sarkozy that is only the beginning.
STUMBLING THE ALLIES
At the same time, the present French leadership is playing a game against the NATO allies. In fact, the AMS project undermines the interests of at least three countries of the North-Atlantic bloc – Great Britain, Germany, and Turkey.
Beside the centuries-long imperial rivalry of France and Britain, Sarkozy's game against the British may be a result of influence from Washington as well. The jealous US strategists are hardly pleased with the recent activation of London's neo-imperial policy. Britain envisages expansion of the Commonwealth, involving such new members like Israel and Algeria. This move can't arouse delight in Washington. The AMS project is destined particularly for preventing British pretensions in North Africa and the Middle East.
In Western Europe, the AMS project is undermining the French-German axis, established by Chirac and Schroeder. Actually, Sarkozy is replicating Angela Merkel's moderate Atlanticism of the 2005 fashion. Sarkozy is hardly committed to completely ruin the connection with Germany, but he is definitely not going to place this connection into the center of his geopolitical plans.
One more targeted side is Turkey. In this case, the US influence may be also playing a significant role. Being irritated with the political disobedience of Ankara, displayed during the latest elections, Washington now instigates the Kurdish ferment, probably hoping to benefit from it at the Iraqi front. Turkey is not going to benefit in any case. If Ankara commits itself to join the AMS, it will have to say farewell to any dreams of EU membership. By the way, Sarkozy has already asserted that for Turkey, "a non-European nation", the most preferable option would be to join the AMS.
For Ankara, however, entry in the AMS would mean recognition of French hegemony, which would deliver a serious blow to Turkish national self-esteem. The Turks may reconcile itself to the role of a junior partner for the American superpower, but to find oneself a vassal's vassal is too humiliating.
In case Turkey prefers to keep independent from the AMS, it is likely to acquire a semi-hostile geopolitical rival, constraining its activity both from the west and from the south.
Still, the United States fears of a serious shift in the Euro-Atlantic community. In any case, hegemony can't be everlasting, and sooner or later, the super-empire encounters crystallization of new centers of power, restricting its hegemonic status. This recognition may provoke Washington for a flight-forward move – which requires, however, a reliable rear.
The possibility of a large-scale American offensive is increased with emergence of the Pakistani problem, which seems to replace the long-discussed Iranian problem.
A NEO-IMPERIAL BARRIER FOR CHAOTIC MIGRATION
The French president is obviously pursuing some personal goals in this geopolitical horseplay. It would be incorrect to explain his policy only with a backward glance at the United States, as France is one of the leading world powers, able to allow itself a lot of freedoms. Sarkozy is definitely motivated also with some considerations of his own.
In fact, Sarkozy had made his career by displaying a harsh stand towards Afro-Asiatic immigration. His slips of tongue were very illustrative: "an African can't enter history", he was once quoted to have said. Ostensibly, the UMS project represents a revision of this attitude – as well as Sarkozy's recent expression of intent to guarantee ethnic and cultural diversity within the AMS.
This shift is actually quite logical. In case Sarkozy just reiterated the phraseology of Jean-Marie le Pen, with his traditional anti-immigrant rhetoric, the domestic and international financial elites would hardly tolerate such a kind of "provincialism". Instead, Sarkozy is trying to sooth both the liberals and the leftists. Obviously, that is the reason for the liberal amendments he is going to introduce in the national constitution.
On the background of this rhetoric, Sarkozy's government is actually preparing to restrict the inflow of immigrants. Brice Hortefeux, Minister of Minister of Immigration, has just reported of establishing a task force to elaborate constitutional amendments on immigration quotas. Thus, the liberal rhetoric may serve as a mere cover for a real crackdown on the inflow of immigrants.
Meanwhile, the UMS is actually an imperial project, though the word "imperial" could be put in quotes. From the maximalistic standpoint of Evola, that is a surrogate empire. Still, it inevitably borrows some features from the traditional empire, as the UMS design suggests integration of a lot of peoples of various faiths. This integration can be successful only under the conditions of a serious ordering in all the regions of the imperial entity. In that case, the leader would be interested rather in colonization – which is essentially different from integration.
It is true that while European colonial empires were existing, the problem of immigrants did not emerge, as their quantity was strongly regulated (the same being true for Russia and the Soviet Union until the 1990s).
An imperial order prevents the chaos of irregular migration. In the conditions of an empire, ethnic minorities prefer to inhabit their native lands, preferring slow but stable development, not being forced to hunt for luck in an alien ethnic and cultural environment. Recognition if this fact has probably inspired Sarkozy for the initiative of a new empire, supposed to order the political and economic situation in the southern Mediterranean region. Still, the abovementioned lack of a cultural kernel makes the solution of this problem hardly available.
RUSSIA AND THE BALTIC UNITY
Sarkozy's France is distancing itself from Germany. In its turn, Germany may undertake a geopolitical move of its own, adequate to the French President's geopolitical initiative. Germany could initiate foundation of an Association of Baltic States – for instance, on the base of the existing Cooperation Council of the Baltic Countries. Emergence of such an alliance would be quite favorable for Russia, especially in the context of construction of the North-European ("North Stream") pipeline.
The Russian-German axis of this alliance would not ignore the role of Poland and the Baltic states. Such kind of a union would be highly symbolic, as the coastline of the Baltic had historically served as the site of intensive Slavonic-Germanic connections. Tribes of Western Slavs, such as Liutizians and Obotrites, had once populated the area between the Oder and the Elbe, being eventually Europeanized – not by the German population as such but by fanatic Western Christians.
Centuries before, Slavonic and Germanic tribes closely cooperated in the ranks of Varangian retinues which once played a crucial role in the culture of Eastern Europe, Rus, and Byzantium. The common equation of the Varangians to Scandinavs is essentially erroneous. According to such Russian authors as Fyodor Moroshkin and Ivan Zabelin, the history of the Varangians has once started on the southern coastline of the Baltics, extending later to the Volga Bulgaria. Definitely, Vikings could hardly extend to the Volga. In fact, the Varangians, or Warins, were a Slavonic tribe that once efficiently colonized the continental lands of Northern Russia.
According to a different theory, Varangians were a multi-ethnic, Slavonic-Germanic unity of warriors, sailors, and merchants. Varangians are described by Helmold of Bosau, a medieval German historian, as the best sailors among the Slavs. Prince Rurik, whose name is also spelled in some sources as Rereg (a falcon), could have relied upon such a community. In the "Legend of the Princes of Vladimir", Rurik's origin is traced back to Prus, the younger brother of Caesar August. In its turn, The Life History of Monk Juvenalius, another ancient manuscript, links the Romanov dynasty to the posterity of Vetevdat, a Prussian king. Therefore, Eastern Prussia is abundant of meanings essential for Russia's destiny.
The foundation of the Association of Baltic States is likely to resurrect old archetypes more essential than the current economic and political problems. The old times have never vanished; they are revivified in the politics or metapolitics of today, influencing minds and re-emerging in a new essence. (In fact, Sarkozy's strategy is similarly based upon ancient Roman geopolitics).
The Union of Baltic States could fulfill several missions, 1) facilitating a further rapprochement of Russia and Germany, 2) mitigating the contradictions between Russia and Germany with Poland, and thus preconditioning a stable development from the Atlantic to the Urals, and 3) solving the problem of Russia's relationship with the Baltic States. This development is actually going to expand in other directions as well. In this regard, the UMS project may serve a role of an indispensable trigger of the world's diversity.
Number of shows: 1291
rating:
3.3
ENG 
