March 05, 2008 (the date of publication in Russian)
Ruslan Kostyuk
BERLUSCONI IS RETURNING?
Disintegration of the leftist-centrist coalition may result in a power shift in Italy
The Italian political model has got a number of features distinguishing it from the presently functioning political systems of Western Europe. These hallmarks are rooted more in the logic of the post-war political development of the country than in the high degree of political temperament of the inhabitants of the Apennine Peninsula.
During fifty years since the execution of Benito Mussolini, the political system of Italy was developing in a classical, coherent way. Public policy was dominated by the centre-right Christian Democratic Party (Democrazia Christiana), its hegemony being challenged by the Communists and Socialists, as well as by smaller rightist parties. The influence of the Communists in the population was much higher than in other European states, the membership being only twice smaller than that of CDP in the sixties and seventies.
While in the 1980s, the Italian establishment did not dare to attack the Communist Party, more speculating on the political disaccord between the Italian Communist Party and the Soviet CPSU, the fall of the Berlin Wall served as a signal for a massive political reshuffle, in which the Christian Democrats, who dreamed of a decisive revival, were victimized along with the Communists. The "Clean Hands Operation", ostensibly introduced as a national anti-corruption effort, became an instrument of a total revision of the political system. Being exposed of dealing with organized crime, the Christian Democratic Party shrunk into a political minority, the Socialist Party was dissolved, while the ICP, blamed for extremism, eventually separated into a moderate Democratic Party of the Left (Partito Democratico della Sinistra), a more consistent Communist Refoundation Party (Partito della Rifondazione Comunista)and itsoffshoot, Party of Italian Communists (Comunisti Italiani) and. This transformation of the leftist minority actually followed the pattern of post-Comecon states, particularly Hungary, Poland and Slovakia.
This massive though relatively peaceful reshuffle brought new figures to the surface of Italy's political system, which eventually developed into a simpler construction, untypical for major West European states. By today, the major political forces are represented by The Union (L’Unione, the succession of Olive Tree (L'Ulivo) Alliance) that unifies a broad range of leftist-centrist (including leftist Catholic) parties and movements, while the House of Freedoms (Casa della Liberta) Alliance represents rightist liberal, conservative, and rightist populist parties.
Meanwhile, the political forces that found themselves beyond the framework of the two super-coalitions, have been almost completely marginalized and deprived of political influence. At the last parliamentary elections, held in 2005, the super-alliances gained over 99 per cent of the vote, while the number of independent MPs shrunk to zero. The minimal advantage (49.8 versus 49.69%) enabled The Union to overtake 349 seats, leaving only 281 for the House of Freedoms.
The obligations, fixtured in coalition documents, reduce independence of member parties of the super-blocs. The legislative process is most usually consolidated within the allied factions. Still, ideological disaccord sporadically bursts out in debates between the moderate centrists and the commonly allied post-communists and environmentalists. In their turn, the rightist liberal party of media tycoon Silvio Berlusconi does not always find common language with the post-Nazi National Alliance (Alleanza Nazionale)and the rightist-autonomist League of North (Lega Nord).
A new effort to overcome these internal differences was expressed in the recent processes of political alliance-making. Last autumn, the Democratic Party of the Left, the senior successor of ICP, completed unification with the leftist-liberal Daisy (La Margherita) Coalition.
Walter Veltroni, the Mayor of Rome and an ICP veteran, was elevated to the leading position in the newly-established unified party, now named Democratic Party (Partito Democratico).
In 2005, the Democratic Party of the Left and the Daisy Coalition garnered 31% of vote taken together. However, the unification of the two parties is unlikely to gain a similarly high level of support, as part of the ex-communists and social-democrats refused to join the new analogue of the British Labor Party.
Meanwhile, media tycoon Silvio Berlusconi (his Ahead Italy! – Forza Italia – Party dominating in the rightist coalition with 23.7% of the general vote) undertook an integrationist initiative of his own, urging the National Alliance, the League of North, and the Christian Democratic Union to unify into a single conservative party. Berlusconi referred to the example of Sarkozy's Union for a Popular Movement in France that succeeded in unifying an array of rightist parties. In other countries of Southern Europe, like Spain and Greece, powerful rightist-centrist alliances have been established as well.
Still, Berlusconi's arguments are not found convincing by most of the rightist leaders – though on the local level, the idea of unification became popular, as thousands of municipal and communal officials from smaller rightist parties much depend on support from Berlusconi's party.
Analysts believe that the relative success of leftist coalition-making is likely to intensify a similar process in the rightist ranks, potentially resulting in establishing a powerful conservative coalition which is perceived by the leftists as potentially a more reactionary force than its analogues in France and Spain.
However, the latest political crisis in Italy has proven that the construction of two-party system is still far from being complete. The retirement of Romano Prodi's government and the subsequent decision of the President to introduce snap elections in April have illustrated the fragility of the currently existing alliances. The withdrawal of a minor leftist Catholic UDEUR party (with a rating hardly reaching 1.5%) from the government, ensuing after the arrest of the spouse of its leader, ex-Justice Minister Clemente Mastella, provoked the fall of the entire cabinet – as after Mastella's allies shifted into the oppositionist faction, the leading alliance lost its majority in the Senate.
Prodi's January flap surprised many observers. In earlier occasions, this experienced politician successfully withstood attacks from the right, escaping blows from the conservative branch of the clerical community (i.e. in the situation when the leftist-centrist Government tried to legalize "civil marriages" including same-sex marriage), and boosting discipline in the coalition ranks. Still, even a couple of votes, provided by a marginal member party, appeared to be sufficient for invalidating the coalition.
Meanwhile, Prodi’s initiative of snap elections actually impeded the integrationist schemes. Moreover, the existing two-side division of the Parliament may collapse as well. Having no time for boosting integration, Berlusconi's party is likely to run for the new parliament under the auspices of House of Freedoms, while the leftist coalition is going to split. Several social-democratic parties and movements, disappointed with the Democratic Party project, are going to re-establish the Socialist Party (Partito Socialista).
Thus, The Union bloc is likely to cease existing. In this situation, those communists, environmentalists and socialists who were reluctant to join Veltroni's bloc intend to establish their own leftist coalition, entitled The Leftist Rainbow (La Sinistra Arcobaleno), supposed to be headed by Fausto Bertinotti, speaker of the Parliament’s lower chamber and former head of the Communist Refoundation Party.
Though the last year's efforts to build up a two-party system in Italy have obviously collapsed, the future parliament is likely to be dominated by two parties – namely, Forza Italia, and the Democratic Party.
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