March 06, 2008 (the date of publication in Russian)
Alexander Sobko
BLOWING OFF STEAM, PREPARE FOR SURRENDER
The official Belgrade treats Serb patriots as outlaws
Last Friday, Serbian police brought official charges against 80 protesting activists in Belgrade. It is noteworthy that the first demonstrations in Belgrade and other major cities of Serbia emerged immediately after Kosovo was declared independent. This early expression of protest did not unfold into acts of civil unrest, with the exception of a few windows smashed in McDonald's cafes. Large-scale acts of sabotage started only on Thursday, February 20 – three days after the Kosovars declared independence of the region. By that time, major countries of the West, including the United States, France, Italy and Germany, had officially recognized Kosovo's sovereignty.
Actually, the February 20 mass rally was initiated by Serbia's powers, and involved politicians from all parties, whose attitude to the Kosovo declaration, as well as to its recognition by the US and major EU states, was unanimously negative. It seemed probable that the police forces, sharing the sentiment of disappointment and rage, would not intervene in the actions of demonstrators, and not prevent their attacks on the embassies of countries that had just legitimized the Kosovo secession. Moreover, these actions were actually justified by Velimir Ilic, Minister of Infrastructure and teammate of Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica. "These countries have smashed Serbia, and therefore, their diplomats should not be surprised that Serbs smash their windows".
President Boris Tadic, who was not present in Belgrade on that day and thus – luckily for him – was unable to intervene, was visibly concerned with the reaction from the governments of states whose embassies were damaged. Returning to his office, he demanded at the urgent session of Serbia's Security Council that the Ministry of Interior "immediately undertake adequate measures" and "punish the hooligans" who attacked the embassies – particularly those persons who burnt down the US Embassy's office. Thus, the demonstrators who have thus "tried to discredit Serbia's integration in Europe", are supposed to undergo show trials.
In fact, a large deal of responsibility for the unrest in Belgrade and other Serbian cities should be laid of Serbia's presidency. The indifference to the Kosovo issue, displayed by Boris Tadic for months before the independence declaration – though the Kosovars had made no secret of their plans – actually forced thousands of people to go out in the streets to express their anger and disappointment.
The behavior of the official Belgrade during the last two weeks before the Kosovo declaration suggested that the President of Serbia, despite his anti-secessionist statements during the recent election campaign, was not going to undertake efficient measures for retaining Serbia's suzerainty over Kosovo. Some kind of a secret plan, reportedly developed for that purpose appeared to be fictitious. Tadic did not dare to do anything except promising to summon a team of lawyers for questioning the legitimacy of the Kosovo state.
The promises of Kostunica's government to disrupt diplomatic relations with those European states that recognized Kosovo's sovereignty were not fulfilled as well. Serbia's Foreign Ministry hurried to explain that the ambassadors in the United States, the UK, France, Germany and Italy were recalled "just for consultations", as "Serbia is not going to break diplomatic relations", being "not committed for self-isolation".
Vice Prime Minister Bozidar Djelic fairly explained the motives of this inconsistency, claiming that Serbia's major objective in year 2008 is "to achieve a status of a candidate for EU membership".
In order to please European politicians, the ruling circles of Belgrade are ready to severe Serbia's relations with Russia. Serbia's Foreign Ministry promptly elaborated two pretexts for expressing grudges towards Moscow: first, its Belgrade office demanded that Russia extradite the widow and son of Slobodan Milosevic who had been granted a refugee status in Russia; days later, the Ministry displayed exaggerated resentment over the judgment of a Russian TV commentator who explained the 2003 assassination of then-Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic with "betrayal of his native country" and described the tragic outcome as "natural" – though this comment did not express the official view of Russia TV channel.
The demand to extradite Milosevic's relatives, obviously for the purpose of a show trial, may be presented to the EU bureaucracy as a compensation of the official Belgrade's failure to seize Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic, the fugitive leaders of Republika Srpska. The extradition of these two persons to the Hague Tribunal had been earlier declared by Brussels as an obligatory condition for Serbia's entry in the EU.
It is noteworthy that the subject of the Milosevic family was raised in Serbian media a day before the second round of the presidential elections, when official campaigning was forbidden – unlike the debate over Serbia's foreign policy strategy.
In our earlier analysis of the situation in Serbia on the eve of the presidential elections, we suggested that Mr. Tadic, to whom the Serbian Ministry of Defense is directly subordinated, may officially raise the issue of separation of Kosovo into two territories, so that the Serb-dominated northern districts remained under the authority of Belgrade.
The option of Kosovo's separation had been discussed for many months before, but both the official Belgrade and the powers of Pristina were unwilling to seriously discuss this possibility. In fact, this option was equally undesirable for Washington, as a possible pretext for disintegration of Bosnia, and for European companies interested in raw materials in the north of Kosovo. Refusing to raise the issue, Boris Tadic left derelict not only the population of Kosovska Mitrovica and other Serbian enclaves in Kosovo, but also highly profitable economic assets.
Under the current conditions, the behavior of Serbia's leadership are restricted to "blowing off steam", while Belgrade is losing possibility to protect the Serbs of Kosovo in case Pristina unleashes a new wave of ethnic cleansing and assaults on Serbian cultural relics.
High probability of new ethnic cleansing is recognized by RBC daily, the most respectable and informed Russian business paper. Acts of public disorder, emerging in the Serb-dominated districts of Kosovo, are likely to serve as substantiation for a new crackdown upon the minority. According to RBC Daily's sources, Kosovo's Prime Minister Hashim Thaci has already unofficially addressed his US patrons to sanction use of special forces against insurgent Serbs.
Instead of trying to protect his compatriots, Boris Tadic urged them to "cease provocations" – though the same expressions of protest, alarm and despair were interpreted by Slobodan Samardzic, Minister of Kosovo Affairs in Kostunica's government, as "a legitimate though unpleasant" reaction to the declaration of Kosovo independence.
Still, Tadic's commitment for unconditional surrender seems to gain the upper hand. This development does not promise much to Serbia's future, as the irrational passiveness of the official Belgrade only instigates the feeling of impunity among Kosovo officials and their international patrons.
That means that the political obedience, displayed by the official Belgrade, does not guarantee Serbia from new outbursts of domestic separatism. The Albanian warlords of the Presevo Valley and the Bosnian radicals of Sanjak are just waiting for a convenient moment to deliver a new assault from inside, with a prospect of leaving nothing but ruins from what was once a unified and self-sufficient nation of Yugoslavia.
Number of shows: 1140
ENG 
