01.04.2008
March 27, 2008 (the date of publication in Russian)
Yaroslav Butakov
PLAYING WITH FIRE ON A POWDERKEG
Some Balkan nations may have to pay for their hasty support of Kosovo independence
SHOULD BULGARIANS RECOGNIZE KOSOVO?
After a while of contemplation, Balkan states hurried to recognize the independence of Kosovo, the Albanian-dominated breakaway province of Serbia. This enthusiasm is displayed not only by those nations who could use the Kosovo precedent for satisfying territorial ambitions of their own but also by those who can fall victim to this precedent.
In particular, the pro-Kosovo stance of Hungary and Croatia could be fairly understood. Many Hungarians believe that a number of territories, inhabited by Hungarian population, were unlawfully alienated by other nations in the aftermath of World War I. This list includes the territories of Transylvania and Banat that became a part of Romania, Vojvodina, an autonomous region of Serbia, as well as some territories in Slovakia and Western Ukraine. At the same time, today's Hungary does not contain any minority enclaves.
Croatia once contained a territory, compactly populated by Serbs and until 1995 existing as an unrecognized Republic of Serb Krajina. Ethnic cleansing, favored by major powers of the EU, put an end to this existence of this Serbian community. At the same time, the shaky statehood of Bosnia and Herzegovina includes a Croatian territory. In case of Bosnia's insolvency and collapse, also due to probable Serbian secession, Croatia could use the opportunity to claim for this area. The Moslem minority of Croatia, comprising not more but 1% of the population, is not regarded as a serious source of ethnic sentiment.
Romania and Greece, on the contrary, contain numerous ethnic minorities with a strong secessionist mood. Not surprisingly, these two states categorically refused to recognize Kosovo's sovereignty. The increasing activity of Albanian separatists seriously endangers Greek statehood.
In its turn, Bulgaria could claim for the territory of Northern Dobruja, a historical element of the Bulgarian kingdom that remained a part of Romania after World War II while Southern Dobruja was integrated into Bulgaria. Local nationalists also drive claims on Macedonia and the territory facing Aegean Sea included into Greece after World War II. However, Bulgaria is unlikely to be able to contend for these territories, as it has got its own serious minority problem, represented by the Moslem population which includes ethnic Turks along with Moslem-converted Bulgarians, identified as poturcency.
The policy of linguistic and religious assimilation, carried out earlier by Bulgaria's communist powers, could not obscure the fact that 15% of Bulgaria's population does not belong to the Orthodox Christian community. Some researchers admit even a larger share of Moslem population in the country.
Recognition of Kosovo sovereignty by the Bulgarian government echoed with a strong protest from a significant and influential part of the public. A group of over one hundred intellectuals from Bulgaria's Orthodox clergy, as well as from the scientific community, signed an official protest signed "Are you insane, blind, or just corrupted?"
"Serbs are our brothers in blood and faith. Betraying them today, we are going to be betrayed tomorrow", claimed the authors of the address. They remind that in 1999, the Bulgarian government has already committed an act of betrayal of the fraternal Slavonic and Orthodox people by providing the air space for NATO aircrafts that bombed Belgrade. Today, "the government is taking historical responsibility for recognition of a criminal state, violating all the international legal norms and laying a time bomb under the security of its own nation".
THE HISTORY OF GEOPOLITICAL BETRAYAL
The Bulgarian establishment has repeatedly ignored the will of fraternal Slavonic peoples. This record starts since the early XX century. The policy of Bulgarian powers has been repeatedly denounced by Russia and the Balkan neighbor states. In all the relevant cases, a large part of the population disagreed with the Government's line.
Bulgaria's statehood was re-established in 1878 in accordance with the San Stefano Treaty signed by the Ottoman Empire and Russia. In the south, it reached the Aegean Sea, extending to the West to the territories of the present Macedonia and to a part of Albania. This geography relatively corresponded with ethnic borders, regarding the close similarity of Bulgarian and Macedonian culture, and the location of Ohrid, the ancient center of Bulgarian Orthodoxy, on the present territory of Macedonia.
The San Stefano Treaty was questioned by a unified front of European powers. At the Berlin Congress, Russia failed to protect Bulgaria's interests. In accordance with the Berlin Treaty, only the northern part of Bulgaria was granted nominal sovereignty under Ottoman supervision, while the southern part was established as autonomy of Eastern Rumelia under the rule of a governor, appointed by the Ottomans with approval from all the European states including Russia.
Having liberated Bulgaria with its military force, Russia did not manage to keep this country in the realm of its influence – not due to passiveness of the imperial diplomacy but rather due the pro-Western inclination of a major part of Bulgarian establishment.
Konstantin Leontiev, a Russian diplomat, philosopher and writer with a background of decades of work in the Balkans, warned that Russians should not soothe themselves with Slavophile illusions about Bulgaria. He was aware of the intimate permeation of the Bulgarian intelligentsia, the future ruling class of an independent Bulgaria, with Western liberal ideas. Leontiev believed that this country, despite its Slavonic identity and Orthodox beliefs, and despite Russia's role in its liberation, is not going to look back at Russia. This assumption appeared to be quite correct.
The Battenberg dynasty, elected by the Constituent Assembly of 1879 in Veliko Tarnovo, was German-originated and Austria-oriented. The Russian Empire made a political error in 1885, the crucial year of Bulgaria's struggle for reunification and independence, recognizing a conspiracy, organized by a pro-German party in Eastern Rumelia as a threat to its interests. St. Petersburg, as well as Belgrade and Bucharest, regarded the unilateral moves of Bulgaria as violation of political balance in the Balkans. Subsequently, Russia recalled its military specialists, employed in Sofia. Meanwhile, the Kingdom of Serbia declared a war to Bulgaria, and was defeated.
In 1886, Battenberg was eventually overthrown by a conspiracy of pro-Russian officers. However, a year later the ensuing counter-conspiracy brought power to Ferdinand von Koburg.
In 1908, Bulgaria declared its full independence. Four years later, it joined the alliance of Greece, Serbia and Montenegro against the Ottomans. The Christian states have thus acquired a significant territory, but the four states failed to share the Ottoman legacy. The self-assured Bulgarians were then committed to overtake Constantinople, King Ferdinand even being displayed on coins with a Byzantine crown. Similar ambitions were expressed by Serbia and Greece as well. A war for regional hegemony became inevitable.
At that time, the ruling establishment of Bulgaria, instigated by Austro-Hungary and Germany, initiated a war against its recent allies. But the opponents were unexpectedly joined by Turkey and Romania. Eventually, Bulgaria lost Southern Dobruja, along with major territories of Macedonia and Thracia, acquired in the first Balkan War. Still, Bulgaria still secured a narrow corridor to the Aegean.
The defeat in the Second Balkan War increased the affinity of Bulgarian elites to the Austro-German bloc, as the leading circles associated its ambitions for revenge with this alliance. With the onset of World War I, Bulgaria delivered an attack on Serbia from the rear, making its position hopeless. However, the outcome of the war was determined by great powers, and this outcome was not in favor of Sofia. In late 1918, Bulgaria was defeated at the Saloniki front, being forced to be the first of the Quadruple Alliance to surrender.
In several occasions during World War I, Russian and Bulgarian troops fought against one another. These clashes took part at the Romanian front in 1916-1917. A record can be found in the writings of military historian Anton Kersnovsky:
"Deploying along the line of Razovo-Kobadin-Tuzla ahead of the Cernavoda-Constanca railroad and merging the remains of the Third Romanian Army, the 47 Corps under command of General Zayonchkovsky intervened at Kokarji, ceasing the offensive of the 3-d Bulgarian Army on Sept.1, and repelled a strong counterattack of the Germano-Bulgarian units on Sept. 4".
It is noteworthy that Russians were then reinforced by a joint South Slavonic division, formed from released Austro-Hungarian POWs of Serbian, Croatian and Slovenian origin.
"On October 6, General McKenzie broke into the lines of General Zayonchkovsky's group, disrupted the Cernavoda railroad and occupied Constanca on Oct.9. [...] On December 20, McKenzie attacked our 6th Army that had completed the evacuation of Dobruja by Dec.14. On Dec.24, the German-Bulgarian-Turkish troops overtook Brailov. [...] In general, in August-September 1916, Bulgaria was represented at the enemy front by two, in October by three, between Nov.1916 and Feb.1917 by four, and since March by two divisions", wrote Kersnovsky.
Thus, the myth that Russians and Bulgarians never raised arms against one another since the 1878 liberation war is unsubstantiated.
In accordance with the Neuilly Treaty of 1919, the entrance to the Aegean Sea and the territory of Macedonia were alienated from Bulgaria and conveyed to the Kingdom of Serbians, Croats and Slovenians. Bulgaria's defeat resulted in a revolutionary crisis. Between 1920 and 1923, the country was run by the leftist government of the Farmers' Union. This government first provided hostage to the fugitive White Guard units but later disarmed them and deported to Soviet Russia. In 1923, the leftist government was overthrown by a military coup.
During World War II, Bulgaria did not join the Nazi military operations but offered its territory to Wehrmacht troops, thus allowing the Nazi to succeed in overtake of Greece and Yugoslavia. The Bulgarian government used the opportunity to regain parts of Macedonia and Thracia, re-achieving access to the Aegean and the Ohrid Lake.
In September 1944, the Soviet Army defeated the Nazi troops in Romania and approached the Bulgarian border. Intending to include Bulgaria in the Soviet zone of influence, Joseph Stalin used the opportunity of a revolutionary unrest, initiated by the alliance of the local Communist Party and the Farmer Movement. This bloc, named the Fatherland Front, subsequently ruled the country until 1990.
In 1980s, the communist powers launched an anti-Turkish campaign, declaring that Islamization of a part of the population is a result of the Ottoman-time occupation, and described the effort as correction of "historical injustice". In 1989, around 360,000 Turks left Bulgaria.
PROBLEMS FOR ONESELF AND NEIGHBORS
The readiness of the Bulgarian government to recognize Kosovo independence not only encourages Turkish separatism in Bulgaria itself but also endangers the neighboring Greece that has got a small but compact 200,000 Turkish minority in the north-east. The Balkan Peninsula is again faced with an eruption of ethnic nationalism with a religious hue. The outward sympathy towards Kosovars (and earlier towards Bosniaks), displayed by the Western powers, are likely to encourage other Islamic minorities of Eastern Europe for secessionist activities. This tendency may result in emergence of a "green belt", extending across the whole Balkan Peninsula to the Adriatic, and involving Kosovo, Albania, Bosnia, along with parts of today's Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia and Montenegro.
Such kinds of geopolitical implications may result from both the West's experiments in nation-building in heroin-trading breakaway territories, as well as the irresponsible policy of Bulgarian and other local elites, eagerly supporting their independence in order to gain special favor from the American "Big Brother".
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