17.05.2008
May 13, 2008 (the date of publication in Russian)
Alexander Rublev
RATHER STALEMATE THAN TRIUMPH
Serbian elections: coalition of Radicals, Socialists, and Centrists possible but problematic
The May 11 elections of Serbia's Parliament turned a new political success of President Boris Tadic. Experts explain the result with skilful political manipulation.
In winter, Boris Tadic's victory in the presidential elections resulted from a directed propagandist effort addressed to the politically passive part of the voting population: they were intimidated with the scare of "return of the 1990s" when Yugoslavia underwent economic sanctions because of military operations against the seceding republics of Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina.
The perspectives of Tadic's Democratic Party looked rather dire after Tadic failed to prevent secession of one more territory – Kosovo and Metohija. However, his coalition managed to gain 39% of the vote in the parliamentary race.
Experts believe that Tadic's team had made a correct choice, promptly changing the political brand. The alliance of the Democratic Party and the G-17 Plus Party was dubbed "For a European Serbia". This name attracted more voters that the names of the founding parties.
The Serbian Radical Party, expressing patriotic and anti-NATO views, gained around 29% – a result by one third smaller than that achieved by its leader Tomislav Nikolic in the presidential elections. Beside domestic political reasons, Nikolic's failure is interpreted with absence of political support from Russia that he and his electorate had been expecting.
While Boris Tadic enjoyed friendly approval from European governments and the EU leadership, Nikolic could not demonstrate any evidence of support from outside Serbia. For that reason, Nikolic's posture looked not sufficiently convincing, while his promises were regarded as unrealistic.
The coalition of centrist parties, chaired by Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, gained a predictable portion of 11%. Less expected was the relative success of the Socialist Party that garnered 8% in an alliance with Pensioners' Party. The leftists won sympathies of elderly people focused on social issues.
Tadic's victory is important from the psychological standpoint. The President now has enough grounds to insist that his political line is shared by the population's majority, and therefore, the accusations of treason are unjustified. However, his party is hardly able to gain majority in the newly-formed government. The "Europeanists" are going to achieve only 107 votes, while for an absolute majority, they need 126. Thus, in order to form a coalition, they will have to strike a deal with either Kostunica's Democratic Party – which is highly improbable, or with the Socialist party of Serbia, earlier chaired by ex-President Slobodan Milosevic until his death in the Hague Tribunal's torture chamber.
Today, Tadic's supporters prefer an alliance with the Socialists, promising them a number of ministerial posts along with recognition from the West. For this purpose, they are supposed to perform as a "respectable, European-like social-democratic party".
The Socialists are hesitating, as a deal with Tadic would be perceived with disappointment by a significant part of the electorate. Though such a coalition looks plausible in the perspective, the party leadership is looking for other options.
In fact, the only alternative for the Socialist party is to join the coalition of the Serbian Democratic and Radical parties. Though the three have got a majority in the Skupscina (Parliament), their possibility to divide influence within the Government is doubtful. In case they fail, Serbia is going to encounter a new political stalemate, eventually resulting in the necessity of snap elections – for the third time during the last year and a half.
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