15.06.2008
May 27, 2008 (the date of publication in Russian)
Konstantin Cheremnykh
SIDENOTES ON THE FIRST PAGE
Russia needs diplomacy that escapes banalities
THE EFFECT OF REITERATION
From the first page of a novel, we can hardly make out the intrigue, as well as to guess the destiny of the main characters. From the first page, we identify the genre, the style, the gamut, and get impression on the dynamics and energy of narration – which may afterwards appear incorrect.
The content of the first page may be misleading. A Soviet censor frowned, opening the first page of Yury Olesha's novel "The Envy" – an apologia of communism, where the description of the hero starts with a phrase: "In the morning, he sings in the john". Meanwhile, the first page of Pasternak's "Doctor Zhivago" definitely left him indifferent.
Generally, we judge upon the first page in terms of traditional – novel, banal – original, familiar-unexpected. Meanwhile, the author himself can be quite unaware of reiterating some recent literary predecessor, and get very surprised when someone exposes this reiteration.
The first foreign trip of the newly-elected head of state may serve as a pretext for fears, doubts, gossips, Schadenfreude, or be taken for granted. In any case, the impression of the audience is shaped not only with the news about the event but also with mass media interpretation, usually regardless from the motivation of journalists – especially when they position themselves as "pure business" media.
It was widely believed among Moscow analysts that Dmitry Medvedev was about to pay his first official foreign visit to Ukraine. Substantiations included: Medvedev's former post in Gazprom; his experience, in the other former capacity of Head of President's Staff, of close contacts with his then-counterpart in Leonid Kuchma's office with a similar last name Medvedchuk; and, finally, the assumption of being more liberal than Vladimir Putin and therefore, more open to Ukraine's "orange" establishment.
Still, some well informed sources pointed in a different direction –to China via Kazakhstan. This information was leaked by unidentified Foreign Ministry officials. This ministry is peculiarly different from other branches of Russia's executive power: during recent years, it did not undergo massive purges like the Energy Ministry, Ministry of Regional Affairs, and even security services, as the quality of diplomatic work can't be evaluated in figures of revenues.
Not surprisingly, mass media mockingbirds were perfectly prepared to the President's first visit – that is perfectly aware of all the ambiguities and weak points of Russian-Chinese cooperation. At the moment when the new head of state stepped on the soil of the Middle Kingdom, the media audience found out that: a) the bilateral commission on military-technological cooperation had been out of function for two years; b) that despite this circumstance, Moscow is now hastily trying to palm off a flock of SU aircrafts of a particular modification; c) that Beijing is much more interested in European fighters and therefore lukewarm in support of Russia vs NATO, and, finally, d) that Rosneft, the most powerful state-run oil company – with reference to another leakage – would much more gladly sell its commodity to the West for a market price than to this Middle Kingdom with a Kremlin-imposed discount.
This orchestration could be treated in various ways: a) completely ignored, b) refuted point after point, c) ridiculed at an international press conference. The latter treatment had been preferred by Vladimir Putin, with his specific talent of sarcasm which cannot be inherited as easily as the helm of state.
Meanwhile, the media audience makes conclusions from a simple but relevant assumption that in case a rumor is not commented at all, it is true, and the more detailed is the mockingbird's chirp, the more biased is the reader of the first page of the new book of policy.
The preceding book of political power had struck the imagination of a common reader with the episode in which the main character brilliantly performed not only in his eloquence but also with his subsequent behavior. Vladimir Putin's speech at the Munich Wehrkunde Conference of 2006 could be much less impressive if he did not choose Saudi Arabia as the next destination point of his travel after Germany. He chose not just a country of a different religion and culture but a country that had very sensitively perceived Russia's military policy in the Caucasus, at the same time serving – for decades – as a strategic partner of the United States that was the subject of Putin's criticism in Munich. This ideally prepared blitz-visit impressed exactly with the multiplication of eloquence to a plausible diplomatic result.
There is no doubt that China, due to being a) a neighbor, b) an overpopulated country and c) a presently great economic power, is generally much more important for Russian foreign policy than the Saudi kingdom. However, Russian-Chinese diplomacy had followed a specific tradition. Boris Yeltsin would regularly travel to China on the eve of his meeting with the US President. In the present case, the President's trip to Beijing preceded the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, dominated by the US corporate establishment and supervised – as a year before – by now former Economy and Trade Minister German Gref who is irreparably convinced that the less the state is involved in economy, the better is for the state.
The page of a documentary cannot be rewritten. Still, the political subjunctive mood, available and allowable for any witness of history, raises questions. The first page could look different and not necessarily less impressing in case the first trip was directed not to the Pacific but to the Indian Ocean and subcontinent, or to the Baltic coastline – for instance, of Poland. It would be certainly more surprising, and mockingbirds would shut up.
A STOP IN THE DESERT
The first page of a book is traditionally decorated with a picture that enables the reader to guess something about the whole first chapter or at least achieve some insight even from a landscape. Small details of the painting may look unimportant. Still, an object, hanging on the wall in the first act, could play in the next one.
In May, Saudi Arabia rejected the contract earlier struck with Russian Railroads Concern. Absence of comments from the Kingdom provided grounds for all kinds of interpretation. Liberal authors hurried to speculate that state-run corporations are always less successful in international trade than private companies, with reference to Lukoil's foreign purchases (particularly a US gasoline networks) on the background of Gazprom's relevant failures (particularly in Britain). These authors did not bother to ask themselves about the secret of international success of China's state-owned petroleum company, CNPC.
Another explanation was focused on the terms of contract that seemed not quite profitable for Russian Railroads: $800 million for the rail track from Riyadh to El Zabar, thus $1.5 million per 1 km. The business media speculators did not ask themselves about the difference between costs of construction in a desert and in Siberian taiga.
Eventually, Russian Railroads' President Vladimir Yakunin reluctantly confessed that the problem was neither in costs nor in technologies, being related rather to "diplomatic affairs". Kommersant Daily explained that Riyadh was jealous about the Russian concern's recent success in a tender in Libya, with which the Saudi Kingdom is in longtime odds.
Russian diplomats could not be unaware of the problems existing between two Arabic states. At least, some of them, officially or under guise, were supposed to be present at the 2003 conference of the League of Arab States where an open conflict broke out between Prince Abdallah and Colonel Muammar Gaddafi.
It makes little sense to seek for a scapegoat, regarding the fact that Mr. Yakunin has got his own particular experience of public diplomacy under the auspices of St. Andrew Foundation and National Glory Center Unfortunately, the result of diplomacy is judged upon the net effect. In fact, the result of Putin's splendid 2006 tour across the Middle East is now visibly reduced. Quite probably, the immediate reason lies in nothing but banal carelessness of self-esteem.
The mockingbird's chirp about Rosneft's trade preferences may be just a speculative concoction. However, Russian Space Agency's declaration on the plans to construct a spaceport alternative to the Kazakh Baikonur, days before Dmitry Medvedev's visit to Astana, is a classical product such kind of carelessness.
Definitely, none of the Russian officials had a particular intention to snub the leader of Kazakhstan. However, the habit of snubbing and then expecting for applause had long become traditional in CIS diplomacy.
Meanwhile, in a successful and politically strong China, the central leadership does not encourage careless behavior in foreign policy. When Chinese public activists demand boycott of Western trade networks as a retribution for the massive pro-Tibet campaign in the West, Renmin Ribao (People's Daily) tells them to shut up. When Beijing does not hurry to support Moscow against NATO, the reason could be not in the desire of achieving a party of Eurofighters but in the assumption that the neighboring nation – a nuclear state, after all – is able to protect its own interests independently. Quite possibly, China just does not have a manner of proving its toughness at any moment and under any pretext -not due to lack of toughness but on the contrary, due to presence of self-confidence that is irradiated without unnecessary verbal statements.
MULTIVECTOR CONCESSIONS
Following the mockingbird interpretation of Chinese "opportunism" with fear of Europe, one could admit that Moscow, whose corporations allow themselves careless statements about China, is much more resolute and better equipped than Beijing. Why does not Beijing then purchase weapons from Russia?
At the Beijing University, the Russian President hinted at some international political forces greatly uninterested in Russian-Chinese partnership. Such forces undoubtedly exist. However, the unnecessary statement only assists these – neoconservative -forces in the United States at the face of US Presidential elections. They had similarly capitalized from the Russian heavily advertised exploration trip to the Arctic that served as a plausible pretext for upgrading the US Navy.
Does Moscow really intend to assist John McCain against Barack Obama? In case such a strategy is really undertaken, it is supposed to involve serious support of the national military potential, at least on the level of state contracts. This strategy, however, does not correspond with the reduction of obligatory army service, as well as the draft.
Weeks before, an unfriendly gesture of Kremlin's media machine was addressed to Israel. The reluctance of this country to convene an international peace conference in Moscow was retributed with extradition of a top Israeli intelligence officer, involved in murky Colombian affairs, not to Jerusalem but to Bogota. Days later, a pseudo-patriotic Zavtra weekly burst out with excessive compliments to Hamas's General Secretary Haled al Mashaal.
This behavior would look convincing and independent unless the Bogota regime was a marionette of Washington – the opposition, on the contrary, being friendly with Latin America's leftist regimes. A flirt with Mashaal would be more convincing if it took place earlier and not today. In fact, Kremlin had been courting Mashaal's adversary Mahmoud Abbas, turning towards Mashaal only after Jimmy Carter's initiative of direct talks with Hamas. Having lost a most promising diplomatic game, Moscow is now trying to display political efficiency in a manner that could benefit nobody but the same John McCain.
What is supposed to perform as "multi-vector diplomacy", or in a worse case, an attempt to reiterate the American diplomatic manner of "sticks and carrots", actually looks ridiculous. Days after the abovementioned unfriendly gestures towards Israel, St. Petersburg Governor Valentina Matviyenko arrives in Jerusalem, irradiating friendliness, and inviting a top (though controversial) Israeli oligarch to invest in real estates of the Russian President’s native city. A more consistent approach would look different: the detained Israeli officer had to be extradited to Jerusalem and exchanged for fugitive oligarch Leonid Nevzlin, and only after that, some contracts could be signed.
NOSTALGY FOR A CLEAR PASSION
Moscow's decision to deprive Ukraine's Justice Minister Yevgeny Korniychuk from an entry visa to Russia was definitely also supposed to emphasize Russia's political strength. However, this move did not win applause anywhere in the world. Mr. Korniychuk had indiscreetly reacted to Vladimir Putin's off-mike remark in a private talk with George W. Bush in April. Reportedly, the Russian leader doubted the very existence of Ukraine as a state.
Ukraine is treated in international media much better than Russia, and frequently described as an innocent victim of Russian arrogance. Still, Ukraine has not achieved the same touching sympathy as Tibet, as its image is too blurred with corruption, embezzlement of Western funding, and political unpredictability, while the aftermath of the "Orange revolution" rather serves as a negative lesson for those who would like to take lessons of democracy. Vladimir Putin's international authority is anyway incomparably higher than that of Victor Yushchenko, who lost his party's majority in the Parliament on June 6, and is now supposed to introduce extraordinary elections for the third time. However, this comparison does not except the fact that the Deputy Minister of Ukraine said what he had to say in accordance with his position. Moreover, in case he did not react at all he would be inept for this position.
In case the Russian Federation did not recognize Ukraine as a state -as Saudi Arabia does not recognize Israel – the harsh approach of the Russian Foreign Ministry would look consistent. At least, it would arouse a clear passion in the audience –of delight or fury, confidence or alarm.
Before Ukraine's Western backers could raise their protest, Kremlin was already warmly embracing Ukraine's Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko at the Moscow summit of heads of CIS governments. What happened within two or three days? Actually nothing, except Kiev's declaration of banning Russian insurance companies from reinsuring risks in Ukraine, with reference to the provisions of WTO that Ukraine – unlike Russia – has entered.
Does this immediate change of intonations in the talk with Ukraine imply a "sticks and carrots" approach or something much worse? State electronic media keep dumb while mockingbirds are free for most indiscreet theories. However, this change can't stay unnoticed outside both countries, where some conclusions about the real degree of Russia's political independence are definitely made. Does that perfectly correspond with the interests of improvement of Russia's image, for which Moscow even established a sophisticated channel of international broadcasting?
Even in everyday life, we use the term "to maintain the line". Quarrelling with your spouse or colleague and feeling that you are right, you keep a pause. This sometimes needs patience, but in a short while, this effort is paid off, as your opponent realizes he has to countenance with your interests.
Feeling oneself strong is a better pretext for condescension to a weaker person. Feeling oneself right is a goods pretext for expressing the view without fear of favor. If you snub Ukraine, snub also Saudi Arabia: otherwise, your strength will be doubted, and third sides will attribute to you the indiscreet but precise Russian expression: "molodets protiv ovets" – "a strong guy against a sheep".
Or, maybe, Ukraine is regarded as a comparable adversary of Russia? Even in this hypothetical case, the above described approach could hardly be justified. Feeling oneself strong also means to be able to respect the adversary. A chronicle of Israeli-Arab wars, issued in Jerusalem, impressed me with the respect expressed to the Arab military – though at that time they were defeated, and Hamas and Hezbollah were yet unknown.
SILENCE AS A PROPERTY OF ASYMMETRY
"Trotsky is a bad politician. What should that mean: no peace, no war, and disband the army? Some stupid Jewish joke. A politician should either declare a war, or sign peace, and bear responsibility for all the consequences", said General David ben Gurion a few minutes before signing the declaration of Israel's independence.
Values could have blurred since then. Still, a few of them are still absolute, and an assault of them is not forgivable. The assault on the Soviet memorial in Estonia affected not only diplomatic relations between Moscow and Tallinn but also memories of millions of people across Europe. At that time, Russia had a perfect moral right for teaching a lesson not only to the Estonians but also to the shy Europeans.
Similarly, Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov had a perfect right to give tribute to the heroes of Sevastopol, and to speak about the truth that unifies Russians and Ukrainians. Small careerists from SBU, who displayed indignation on their glossy faces, were not relying on truth. They could be taught a lesson – as well as their bosses. But since this moment, it was essential to "maintain the line".
This suggests not "symmetric response", a Ukrainian minister being banned from entering Russia in exchange for the same treatment of Luzhkov in Ukraine. This is not a business deal. If you are convinced that you are right, that the truth you are speaking is paid by millions of lives, you are armed with this advantage. Without raising your voice, with absolute and confident calm, you demand that the measures against Mr. Luzhkov (or the activists of the Night Watch in Estonia) be cancelled. This demand should not involve third sides – as the countries than purchase gas from Russia, are not oblige to solve Russia's problems, as they did not create them in November 1991. Beside the notorious "gas valve", there is a lot of means to use, including non-public means that don't give media mockingbirds any pretext for chirping.
Saudi Arabia's silence over the deal with Russian Railroads is explained with "subtleties of the Orient". However, the real advantage of Oriental political culture is the ability to act instead of speaking – the peculiar ability of keeping silent and laborious, until achieving a potential appearing to be amazingly high, as China did last year. At the moment the real capacity is revealed, its starts moving mountains.
Expectations of a new great piece of literature are similar to thirst. Once you made a sip, you can't stop and want more and more. Once the quality of leadership was revealed, it is believed to be easily inherited. Though, if it actually appears hard, the heir is not to blame.
The talent of performing amazing moves is not a capacity but an expression of capacity. A political act is more than a matter of individual choice, as it implies a whole culture of millions acts, performed before and extending until today. The first page of a book has an advantage: it does not reflect the truth of even one half of the narration. God grant those persons whom the 150-million exigent, watchful and prejudged audience depends upon, the ability of being "less readable "- as only the amazement of discovery can trigger a powerful process of transformation.
Number of shows: 1615
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