11.09.2008
September 05, 2008 (the date of publication in Russian)
Valery Zufman
A COVER OPERATION
The United States is trying to "derange" Russia and China, in order to gain free hand for an assault on Iran
THE SHIFT OF ATTENTION
Political events, taking place at one side of the global chessboard, are usually echoed at the other side. Experienced global players never strive just for a pawn or a bishop but stage a combination in order to gain quality. Similarly to a chess combination, a number of moves, following one another on the global scene, are seemingly independent but reveal a common pattern when observed narrowly.
In August, the mankind was expected to concentrate exceptionally on the Olympic contest. At the time of the Olympic Games, ancient Greeks used to cease wars. In the world of today, this coincidence was utilized pragmatically: on the background of the Games, it was more convenient to launch another contest – for global domination.
Those who backed Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili foresaw two possible variants of Moscow's behavior: either humble idleness, implying strategic weakness seen as a carte blanche for further destabilization at Russia's borders – or active intervention, creating a pretext for demonizing Russia. In both cases, the goal – to impede Russia's foreign policy activities – was attainable.
A month after Georgia's assault on South Ossetia and Russia's counter-operation, the White House and the Congress are delivering conciliating messages. On September 4, Undersecretary Daniel Fried claims that the Georgian powers "made a mistake" when deciding to attack South Ossetia. "Whatever arguments they use to explain themselves, they don't prove the decision was reasonable", he said, adding that the United States is not concentrated on "punishing Russia", and wouldn't greet its self-isolation.
Is the State Dept thus hinting that the "errant" Saakashvili could be given away for some concessions? Of what kind, and for what reason?
CHINA IS TREATED SIMILARLY
The Olympic Games started in Beijing on that background of a severe political crisis in a neighbor state. Pervez Musharraf is forced to leave the post of Pakistan's President, under massive pressure from both liberal and Islamist opposition. Musharraf was regarded as a US ally. However, he recently expressed concern over the intentions of the United States to deploy a larger military potential to its bases in the area, and also tried to restrict local activities of US intelligence services.
Musharraf's regime had been in fact unstable for several years following NATO intervention in Afghanistan. Western Pakistan's tribal territories had since become a locus of permanent unrest.
Instead of providing support to its partner in the declared "anti-terrorist warfare", Washington instead preferred to assist the rivaling India. A new conflict around the debated territory of Kashmir took place right before Musharraf resigned.
The US-India rapprochement especially favored the sphere of military-technological cooperation – which was observed in Pakistan with natural jealousy. Trying to ensure military balance, Islamabad purchased weapons and hired specialists from Beijing.
Musharraf's resignation is plunging Pakistan into chaos. The major forces, struggling for political power, include the supporters of Gen. Navaz Sharif, and Benazir Bhutto's widower Asif al Zardari. It is noteworthy that on the eve of the crisis, both oppositionist leaders were staying in London.
Destabilization takes place also in the East Chinese Sea: after Condoleezza Rice's refusal to erase North Korea from the "terrorist-friendly" states, Pyongyang withdrew from the earlier signed agreement that curtailed the nuclear program.
At the southern borders of China, an insurrection blocks a major international airport, terrifying tourists. Thailand is destabilized for the second time in three years. Its recently elected President, backed by China, is reluctant to leave. Clashes culminate on the day of Musharraf's resignation.
In fact, Beijing finds itself in a semicircle of instability – right at the time of the Olympic Games, Inside the country, Tibetans use the same period for new actions of disobedience.
THE KEY WORD IS IRAN
For what reason does the United States deliberately restrict and block the foreign policy maneuver of two major powers – China and Russia? The key word for the answer is Iran.
The Bush-Cheney administration is in a hard situation. In the oncoming elections, they have to guarantee the victory to the Republican candidate John McCain. In order to go on playing the upper hand in the global game, the US has to dominate in the energy-rich Middle East. However, the overthrow of Saddam Hussein – a bitter enemy of Iran – had shaken the earlier balance in this region.
While Iraq was in a permanent disaster, Iran acquired the status of the dominating power of the region. It possesses all the prerequisites for economic growth – particularly as the major oil and gas supplier of China. Meanwhile, Washington would prefer to directly influence Chinese economy in the effort to impede its growth.
Washington would not like to see Iraq absorbed into Iran's area of influence next day after the withdrawal of US soldiers. Therefore, the undesired piece should be kicked off the board. In the presented geopolitical context, media leakages over preparations for a military strike on Iran sound plausible.
Thus, it is quite possible that a series of regional conflicts along the borders of Russia and China, driving the attention of both to regional problems, is an element of a deliberately created background for the expected assault on Iran. It is most likely to happen in October – days before the Presidential elections.
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