March 20, 2007 (the date of publication in Russian)
Alexei Baliyev
THE GREAT MIGRATION
Where will Chinese authorities send the next wave of migrants?
RPMonitor already published an article describing the proposal by a group of political experts of the US Democratic Party to analyze whether or not the current Russian-Chinese border is legitimate. These experts have repeatedly said that the US plans to question the fairness of the XIX century Russian-Chinese border deals. Of course the attempt of part of the US's political elite to redirect China towards expansion north will not be taken seriously by those leading the country today. Peking is far more interested in South-East Asia and the Western part of the US than the North. But a decline of the socio-economic situation in Russia's Far East and an increase in Chinese capital there may in time lead Peking to restructure its priorities. Peking's demographic problems, which may soon turn political, will also stimulate this.
Today China is attempting to continue carrying out its demographic policy of "One family – one child". Family planning has been declared of crucial importance by the country's leaders. "It's very important that the birth rate in China's rural areas, where 800 million out of the country's total 1.32 billion people live, remain low." Another problem the PRC is facing is the population increase in its major Eastern cities, in which living conditions are much better than elsewhere in the country. No wonder authorities plan to move people away from these areas into central, northern and western territories (Such a policy was carried out by Mao Zedong to prevent overpopulation in the East). People from provinces bordering Nanjing, Shanghai and Guangzhou will be moved first.
However, it is noted in several secret documents by China's authorities that moving people away from the Pacific regions will not solve the entire complex of demographic problems. Realizing the danger of this, Chinese authorities are stimulating emigration to nearby countries, of which Russia is one. And according to Taiwanese scientists' calculations the PRC's population will reach 1.45 billion in the next few years (this is 130 million more than the government prediction).
According to Japanese and South Korean sources a closed meeting took place about a month ago between government analysts from five PCR Ministries, including Defense, Foreign Affairs and Socio-Economic Development. The perspectives for Russia's Far East and Eastern Siberia were discussed. China's desire to protect its interests in the regions was debated, among other topics.
The situation with Chinese migrants along the Russian-Chinese border and the rapid increase of the Chinese community in Siberia and the Far East is beginning to concern Russia. The population density on China's side of the border is 15-30 times greater than in the adjoining regions of Russia. Only 13.5 people live on every square kilometer of land in Primorsky Krai, the most densely populated region in that area of Russia, while 130 people crowd in the adjoining area of North- East China. Only 5 million reside in Primorye, while the three closest regions of China have a total population of over 102 million. Even North-East China's least populated province of Heilongjiang has a population density of 82 persons per sq. km., which is almost six times as much as Primorye.
Over 8.3 million people find themselves unemployed in North-East China. The overall ease of crossing the Russian border, settling down and finding a job there has led to a drastic increase in the number of Chinese migrants in the Amurskaya, Irkutskaya, Chitinskaya, oblast', Khabarovskiy and Primorsky Krai, Buryatia). An estimated 3.7 million foreign workers currently reside there, and legal immigration occurs less than in 35% of cases. Over 60% of these migrants reside in Khabarovsky Krai (24%), Primorye (20%) and Amurskaya Oblast' (16%). According to some predictions, the number of Chinese workers in the area will reach 4.2 million in the next several years, and the ratio of legal to illegal migrants will remain the same.
American analysts predict that in 10-13 years the proportion of Chinese people in the overall number of residents of the Khabarovsk, Primorskiy Krai and Amurskaya Oblast' will reach 30-35% (vs. today's 15-18%), Chitinskaya Oblast'- 27-30% (vs. 12-14%). And the proportion of Chinese migrants in the workforce will increase even more drastically, as new workers continually immigrate, while the number of Russian workforce-aged citizens continues to decrease. Also, 55% of industrial funding in the four aforementioned regions is currently provided by Chinese investments.
Therefore Peking is sowing the seeds of an economic, political and legal presence of China in the region just in case today's Russian Federation breaks up. For now, just in case…
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