June 14, 2007 (the date of publication in Russian)
Alexander Rudakov
POLAND DESERVES A BETTER ROLE IN EUROPE
The Moscow-Berlin-Warsaw axis could serve the base for European stability
When Lech Walesa, founder of the Solidarity Movement, was once asked to explain his reluctance to support the presidential bid of his former associate Lech Kaczynski, the legendary dissident replied, "I know this person too well: he is able only to destroy". Back in the early 1980s, Kaczynski was famous for his manner of begetting intrigues and conspiracy theories from nothing. Winning the elections and appointing his twin brother to the post of Prime Minister, Lech Kaczynski extended his habits to an international dimension.
The political logic of the Kaczynski duo is based on a simple assumption: the dominating power in the European Union is Germany, the very country which is Poland's "essential enemy". This political bias inspires the twin brothers for all kinds efforts undermine Germany's influence, and to instrumentalize membership in the EU primarily for this purpose. What is Germany's weakest point? Dependence on Russia's gas imports, particularly due to fear of developing nuclear energy, and reluctance to import fuel from "third world" nations. This weak point is what the twins are playing upon. Germans are consequently portrayed in Polish press as "traitors of Europe", while their plans of energy cooperation with Russia are impeded by mobilization of trained environmentalists. The Russian-German gas pipeline, North Stream, is described as an environmental hazard, emerging from the potential explosion of ammunition, piled on the Baltic's bottom since World War II.
However, this intense environmentalist campaign, launched by Warsaw, conveniently coincides with Warsaw's own negotiations with Norway and Denmark on a pipeline project extending along the bottom of the same Baltic Sea, right by the Danish isle of Bornholm, where over 11,000 tons of chemical weapons were dumped after WWII. This project is regarded as acceptable for Warsaw, though the length of the projected pipeline twice exceeds the North Stream.
It is noteworthy that according to the estimates of Swedish environmentalists, the route of the North Flow, on the contrary, is passing across the safest territory of the Baltic, while its construction could be only useful for the region's biological resources – as the pipeline, extended along the bottom, would not only impede barbarian trawl fishing but also provide natural shelter for fish.
Meanwhile, the government of Poland is going to drill oil in two areas of the Baltic's coastline at a distance of 63 and 135 kilometers from Gdansk – exactly in the zone where Nazi chemical ammunition was once dumped. The deposit’s capacity is estimated in at least 110mln barrels, which means industrial-scale extraction. The implications are unclear, but a number of international ecological institutions already express their concerns. No wonder: Poland has already become famous as the champion in discharge of all kinds of toxic pollutants and chemical waste into the Baltic. Poland is the major polluter of the Baltic with nitrogenous and phosphoric substances.
The policy of Kaczynski brothers could be logically understood if they were motivated by considerations of economic benefit and promoted new transit routes across their own territory; if they proposed favorable conditions of transit, attracting Russian and German investments for renovation of their own infrastructure. However, the twins are indifferent to such "petty" issues. They are instead overwhelmed with search for obscure enemies to expose them of "energy collaborationism" and betrayal of national interests. Such suspicions may be concocted literally from nothing. For instance, ex-Premier Leszek Miller is facing criminal persecution for failing to implement the project of the Norwegian-Polish pipeline – due to its economic unprofitability.
A complete absence of positive motivations in Kaczynski brothers' policy was exemplified with the diplomacy over the deployment of US ABM facilities on Poland's territory. At the starting point of the talks, Defense Minister Radek Sikorski, a convinced Russia-hater, demanded that in exchange, the US side equip the Polish armed forces with "Patriot" launchers. However, this rearmament of Poland was not envisaged by the "Washington Politburo" where it is believed that subordinates should fulfill instructions without any prerequisites. Instead, the US side prepared the blueprint on ABM deployment along with the ready-printed approval of the Polish side, considering no benefit in exchange. Such a contemptuous treatment of Rzeczpospolita infuriated even Mr. Sikorski, who eventually banged the door and resigned.
However, the Kaczynski brothers did not support their minister, as the objective of upgrading the military potential, pursued by Warsaw "hawks", was regarded by them as unimportant. In their view, it would be much more expedient to create problems for other states, preferably for the hated Germans. Washington's ABM deployment is welcomed by the Polish leadership not only because it poses a threat to the Russian Federation's security but also because it challenges the EU's own external sovereignty – the fact conveniently downplayed by Washington's propaganda.
The anti-European essence of the twins' policy is equally exemplified with the history of their struggle against "energy dependence" from Russia. The fact that Poland's real energy interests had nothing to do with this policy, is proven with the dismissal of young Prime Minister Marcinkiewicz who tried to court alternative providers over realistic contracts, and was eventually sacked.
In the "struggle for energy independence", the twins are focused on challenging the European magnificoes. With exhaustion of Norwegian gas deposits, the Russian Federation remains the only stable long-term provider of natural gas for Europe. Meanwhile, risks involved in long-term contracts with Russia are far lower than, for instance, contracting with Algeria – where, after a bloody civil war, the problem of terrorism is still unresolved. "Alternative" sources in the Persian Gulf and in the Caspian rest upon similar powder kegs, and stability of deliveries from these regions could be guaranteed only by permanent military presence. Given the obvious untenability of the European integration’s military aspect, one can admit that this military control can be only American. Trying to oust Russia from the European energy market, the Kaczynskis are creating preconditions for a stronger dependence of the EU from the United States, under which energy supplies to Europe will be conditioned with US military deployment policies.
Trying to justify their foreign policy line, the Kaczynskis brainwash the Polish population with a fantastic picture of "hostile environment". According to their description, Poland is surrounded by bloodthirsty aggressors and cowardly traitors. Allegedly, Russia and Germany are dreaming of a new Molotov-Ribbentrop plan, based exceptionally upon Polonophobia. The decision of the Russian leadership to introduce a new holiday on November 4, marking the end of the Time of Troubles (1612), is interpreted as nothing but evidence of a Russia-overwhelming anti-Polish sentiment.
All these allegations may be treated – and are treated in many Russian media – with either irony or icy neglect. One can soothe oneself with the assumption that sooner or later, the power of Poland will change, and new, more adequate and constructive leaders will be elected. Still, it should be considered that the political emotions which resulted in the election success of Lech Kaczynski, are going only to intensify. Today, Poland fails to find a decent place for itself in the European Community. Instead of demonstrative indifference, Russia could help this nation to elevate to a new geopolitical identity. This is a really serious problem, repeatedly raised by our website.
In the present situation, it makes sense to send the Polish people a clear and unambiguous signal of Russia's long-term interest in a stable, predictable, and European Poland. Though today's Poland does not belong to the militarily or economically leading countries of the continent, we can't ignore its powerful cultural heritage, exemplified by names like Copernicus, Chopin, and Mickiewicz. We believe that Poland's potential, determined with its unique geographic position, traditions of statehood, and the positive demographic tendencies of a country with population of some 40 million where – a rare occasion for modern Europe – traditional family life is still dominating, could be fruitfully implemented in the XXI century.
However, this promising potential can't fully develop in the conditions of political and social pessimism which the present leadership of Poland is imposing upon its own population. The Poles can acquire new confidence in their future if they heal themselves from poisoning with ethnic and historical superstitions, especially those associated with Russia's "everlasting" hostility. There are no grounds for the Poles to perceive themselves as an everlasting victim of Russia. The relations of the two Slavonic nations have historically been very variable. After all, Polish troops occupied Moscow much earlier than Russian troops overtook Warsaw. After all, Alexander Pushkin and Adam Mickiewicz were friends. And, finally, the mentality of Russians and Poles, not speaking of language and the legacy of economic, cultural and personal relations, has too much in common.
Poland has a good possibility of using its geographical position to the advantage, and not to the detriment of its interests. Instead of cultivating fears towards the closest neighbors, and relying upon support from the distant and haughty Washington which regards it, like the Philippines, as not more than a convenient site for its own military assets, Poland could think of the benefits of a productive axis of Moscow, Warsaw, and Berlin. In this trilateral cooperation, unlike the partnership with Washington, Poland could achieve a far more important role on the European and international arena, and more successfully implement its foreign policy ambitions.
Poland's political choice is of great importance for the future of Central and Eastern Europe. It is in our interest to start a dialogue with the Polish political and cultural elite, in order to help this nation to achieve a more reasonable and constructive role on the Eurasian continent.
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